Spain vs Italy Prediction: Back Italy to have 10+ shots against the Spanish

We have our first match-up of giants of World Football on Thursday evening, with Spain and Italy facing off from 20:00 on ITV1.

We've asked our Spanish based writer Mark Sochon to preview this one and he gives us his three best bets for the match. Check out his Spain vs Italy Predictions below with us at Betfred Insights...

Spain and Italy meet on Thursday night in Gelsenkirchen in the first true heavyweight clash at Euro 2024. Between them, these sides have won three of the last four Euros and both made winning starts to their campaigns this time around.

It was a flying start for the Spanish who were 3-0 winners against Croatia on Saturday with all the goals coming before the interval. Luis de la Fuente opted for a bold line-up with young wingers Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams both starting and it felt like the dawn of a new era for Spain in tournament football.

For the first time in 136 competitive matches, dating way back to the final of Euro 2008, La Roja had less possession than their opponents, with a willingness to be a bit more direct and play with pace in the final third evident throughout.

De la Fuente would have been particularly pleased to see both Fabián Ruiz and particularly Álvaro Morata shine and score in the game. Both have their critics in Spain and neither carried much form into the tournament but Fabián was outstanding in midfield while the Morata goal was another big positive on matchday one given his reputation as a “confidence player”.

Lamine Yamal also showcased his immense talent on his biggest stage yet with an assist for Dani Carvajal’s goal and it already feels like Spain have one foot in the knockout stage heading into this match.

On a slightly more cautionary note, it should be pointed out that they did score seven in their opening game at the 2022 World Cup, but would fail to win another game, with defeats against Japan and Morocco ending their adventure before it had really got going.

Italy will provide a stern test for this new-look Spanish attack and the Azzurri also head into this game with three points on the board after recovering from a very early setback to beat Albania at the weekend.

Nedim Bajrami scored the fastest goal in the history of the competition to deal an unexpected early blow to the defending champions. However, Italy quickly regained their composure and went on to dominate the game, with Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolò Barella scoring First Half goals in a 2-1 victory.

While it wasn’t a performance that would have sparked fear amongst their rivals at Euro 2024, Italy’s ability to play smart, tournament football has often been their biggest strength. With a relatively limited squad by the standards of a great footballing nation, they may need all of those qualities if they’re to go deep in Germany.

Luciano Spalletti’s side are unbeaten in seven matches overall heading into this game, but their record against the top nations hasn’t been great since their brilliant run to Euro 2020 glory.

They’ve been beaten twice by Spain since that tournament and were also beaten twice by England in qualifying for this competition. A strong performance and at least a point in this game would reinforce Italy’s status as a force to be reckoned with at these Euros, but they head into this Group B clash as the clear underdogs.

Team News:

Álvaro Morata and Rodri were replaced in the Second Half against Croatia with minor injury concerns, but both are expected to be fit to start again for Spain on Thursday. Defender

Aymeric Laporte is also back in training, which means there are no notable selection issues for Luis de la Fuente heading into this match.

He may simply name the same eleven again, with Nacho expected to keep his place in defence ahead of Laporte. If there is to be an alteration, it may well come on the left flank where Dani Olmo is an alternative option to Nico Williams, while Alejandro Grimaldo will also feel unfortunate to have missed out on a start in the opener with Marc Cucurella preferred at left back.

As for Italy, they’re also in good shape on the injury front right now, with no major issues for Spalletti heading into a game that will most likely determine who tops Group B.

That could mean an unchanged eleven, although Roma’s Bryan Cristante is pushing for a start in midfield. Andrea Cambiaso, Matteo Darmian and Alessandro Buongiorno are also options should Spalletti look to do something slightly different in a much tougher fixture than their opener.

Spain vs Italy Odds:

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Spain vs Italy Euro 2024 market page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Spain start as the 23/20 favourites to win this match with the Draw on offer at 9/4 while Italy are available at 13/5 to make it two victories from two.

Punters will need to weigh up whether or not Spain will continue with their positive approach from matchday one in a fixture where a draw wouldn’t be a disaster for either side. If you’re expecting chances and goals at each end, you can back Both Teams to Score at 5/6, a winning bet in four of the last five meetings between these sides. Meanwhile Over 2.5 Goals is on offer at 11/10.

Álvaro Morata leads the field in the goalscorer markets, with the Atleti striker available at 7/2 to score first and 7/4 to score anytime. Gianluca Scamacca is the standout option for Italy at 11/4 to score anytime, while you can back boy wonder Lamine Yamal to score at some point in the match at 16/5.

There are also some tempting #PickYourPunt builders to choose from. You can back Spain to win, BTTS and Morata to score anytime at 6/1.

On the other hand, if you fancy the defending champions to make a statement with a big display, odds of 8/1 for Italy 2+ Goals, Italy 5+ Shots on Target and Italy 5+ Corners may appeal.

Bet 1 - Italy 10+ shots @ 17/20

While Spain rightly received plaudits for their opening performance, there were still moments which highlighted where they might end up falling just short in this tournament. They do have some defensive vulnerabilities and they allowed Croatia to have 16 shots in that game.

Italy are a side that tends to have many attempts on goal. In 11 outings since Spalletti took charge earlier this season, their lowest shot tally has been 9. They registered 17 attempts against Albania last time out and notably had 15 and 17 shots in tough away games against England and Ukraine respectively during Euro 2024 qualifying, despite failing to win either match.

Given those stats, odds of 17/20 for Italy to have 10+ shots look pretty good here.

Bet 2 - Double Chance - Spain or Draw & Over 1.5 total goals @ 3/4

While Italy should certainly compete in this game, Spain do look worthy of their status as favourites with an extra sprinkling of star quality in midfield and up front.

They should take real confidence into the match after the Croatia display and they have tended to shade the recent meetings against Italy, being unbeaten in five clashes if you discount the penalty shootout loss three summers ago.

Having set the tone for the tournament with a really attacking display, it’s hard to see De la Fuente immediately reverting to a more cautious, possession-heavy approach and I’m using the #PickYourPunt builder to back Double Chance - Spain or Draw and Over 1.5 total goals at 3/4.

Bet 3 - Spain 2-1 Italy @ 8/1

Spain have won the last two meetings by 2-1 margins and they look the team more likely to nick this one too. There are some potential cracks in their defence that Italy may look to exploit while Unai Simón’s attempts to play it out from the back do sometimes backfire, so there’s certainly reason to think the Azzurri can get on the scoresheet.

However, with Rodri a class act in midfield, Lamine Yamal as their main outlet on the right and with the likes of Morata, Pedri and Fabián potentially playing themselves into a bit of form, I’m going with Spain to win 2-1 at 8/1 in the Correct Score market.

You can get all the latest betting prices for all the matches in this tournament on our Euro 2024 Odds page over on betfred.com

Betfred Match Offers:

Goal Fever

Throughout Euro 2024, Betfred are offering all customers a 25% cash bonus if your selected team in the Match Result market wins by 3+ Goals on selected matches. Spain vs Italy is part of this promotion, so if you back and team and they win by three or more, you would see 25% added to your winnings on that bet.

Double Delight & Hat-Trick Heaven

This Spain vs Italy game is also one for those who like a bit of a potential bonus in the first goalscorer markets. Should the player you bet on score first and subsequently go on to score a second in the match, we'll double the odds and if they get a hat-trick, we'll treble the odds!

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish football for us here at Betfred Insights and he'll be following the Spanish national side throughout the Euro's for us. You can check out his and all the other Football Betting Tips from our writing staff on our main Football hub page.