Poland vs Austria Prediction: Baumgartner to spearhead Austria to victory
Poland and Austria head to the Olympiastadion in Berlin on Friday evening (17:00, live on ITV) fully aware that they can't afford to suffer another defeat in Group D.
Both nations began their Euro 2024 campaigns with a loss, as Poland were beaten 2-1 by the Netherlands, while Austria were narrowly defeated 1-0 by France. Read on for my Poland vs Austria prediction, as well as the latest team news and match odds.
Poland vs Austria Betting Tips
This backs-against-the-wall clash promises to be an thrilling encounter, as both sides have an urgent need for points.
Assuming France beat Poland and the Netherlands defeat Austria on matchday three - which is not a given in either case - the winner of this game would be the only other team in with a chance of making it out of Group D as one of the tournament's best third-place finishers. The loser of Friday's encounter can essentially kiss their knockout hopes goodbye, barring a miracle.
Poland will take encouragement from the fact that they took the lead against the Netherlands, despite finishing the game on the wrong end of a 2-1 scoreline, while Austria put in a very respectable performance against one of the pre-tournament favourites in France.
Team News
Robert Lewandowski has returned to training for Poland, so the expectation is that he will play in Friday's clash, although it remains to be seen whether he'll be fit enough to start.
Karol Swiderski made his case for a place in the starting XI with a strong cameo off the bench in Sunday's loss, while at the back, Bartosz Salamon is a doubt after hurting his ankle against the Dutch.
As for Austria, there aren't any fresh injury issues, but after seeing his side struggle to create chances against France, Ralf Rangnick may opt to rotate his side.
Marko Arnautovic and Romano Schmid could come into the starting XI, while a place could be found for Patrick Wimmer on the flank.
Poland are 5/2, which implies they have a 28.6% chance of claiming a vital three points, while the draw is the same price, and Austria can be backed at 11/10.
Both teams to score is odds-on at 8/11, and if you fancy this game to have goals, over 2.5 goals is currently priced at 10/11.
Austria to win and both teams to score @ 3/1
Both Poland and Austria gave valiant efforts in their opening Euro 2024 games, but I was more impressed with Austria's performance against France.
Given the talent gap between France and Austria, the latter were always going to need a strong collective performance to have any chance of a successful 90 minutes - and I believe they delivered that. Austria arguably outplayed their opponents and only lost due to an own goal from Maximillan Wober.
Rangnick's side will recognise the importance of Friday's encounter, and I believe that they are better equipped to control this match. Austria have been exceptional since the former Manchester United boss took charge, with Das Team winning 14 of the 22 games in his tenure.
However, one commonality in both nation's opening games was defensive weaknesses - Netherlands managed 1.50 xG against Poland, and France's xG vs Austria was 2.09, suggesting there could be goals at both ends in Berlin.
Christoph Baumgartner to score anytime @ 12/5
Baumgartner arguably had Austria's best chance against France, which is probably no coincidence as the RB Leipzig man occupied an advanced attacking role.
The 24-year-old had been in excellent form prior to that miss though, scoring in each of his five international appearances before the loss to Les Bleus, and he could have a say on proceedings in Berlin.
Correct Score - Austria to win 2-1 @ 15/2
If I had to predict a score for this game, I'd go for an Austria 2-1 win.
As I've mentioned above, I think Austria are the superior collective unit out of the two sides, and honestly, I think Poland's chances in this game heavily depend on the fitness of their star man Lewandowski.
I'm expecting a closely-fought affair, with Austria prevailing.
GOAL FEVER - Get a 25% CASH winnings bonus if your team wins by 3 or more goals in selected matches!
Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven Pre-Match offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid at treble the odds!
You can read all our latest Euro 2024 Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.
Share Article
