Netherlands vs France Bet Builder Tips: 7/1 shot for defensive masterclass

Anyone up for a gargantuan Group D clash at Euro 2024? The Netherlands take on France on Friday night (20:00, BBC One), with top spot up for grabs if either side can find all three points. Ronald Koeman’s team came from behind against Poland to win their opener, while France were rather fortunate to win their first game against Austria.

Didier Deschamps’ side needed an own goal to secure a 1-0 success, but it came at some cost, as Kylian Mbappe broke his nose and will now be out for the remainder of the group stage. When he returns, he will have to wear a protective mask, but can the 2018 world champions cope without him? 

Below you can find my Netherlands vs France Bet Builder Tips, as two former winners of this competition collide in Leipzig. 

Netherlands vs France Odds

Draw

I would have been more than happy to back France if they had Mbappe at their disposal, but I’m far less confident now he is out through injury. He offers so much to this team and his star quality always seems to make the difference in key moments. Even in that below-par performance against Austria, it was his clever movement and cross that led to the own goal that won the game. 

Without him, and with Olivier Giroud likely to replace him, France’s whole system changes. They no longer have the pace to trouble Virgil van Dijk and his fellow defenders in central areas, and the Dutch will back themselves to keep France at arm’s length. The Netherlands conceded a sloppy set piece goal against Poland but they were solid from open play. With that talented back four, I think they will fancy their chances here of getting at least a point. 

Given the defensive quality of the French side I’m not going to back the Oranje to take all three points, but I genuinely believe a draw is the most likely outcome on Friday night. 

Under 2.5 goals

I also don’t believe that this match will be a thriller.

I’d actually rank these two defences as the top two in the tournament, and without Mbappe, I think France could find it tough to score. The Dutch boast remarkable individuals in defensive positions and their back four of Denzel Dumfries, Van Dijk, Stefan de Vrij and Nathan Ake is going to be tough to topple. When you consider they also have Micky van de Ven and Jeremie Frimpong to bring off the bench, you can see why some pundits are expecting them to go deep into the competition.

Their attack looked sharp against Poland but up against the seemingly impenetrable back four of Jules Kounde, Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba and Theo Hernandez, I’m not expecting Memphis Depay and Co. to get much joy. Under 2.5 goals is the next selection for our bet builder. 

Cody Gakpo 1+ shots on target

The Liverpool man impressed me against Poland and although most of the focus was on Depay in the build-up, it was Gakpo who came to the fore. He scored the opening goal and was constantly a threat throughout, managing two shots on target in total against Poland. The wide man should be able to find the target with at least one effort against France. 

Euro 2024 Odds

Nathan Ake 1+ foul

The Manchester City defender is currently playing as a left-back for his national team, which works nicely given the attacking capabilities of Dumfries on the opposite side. However, he is coming up against the pacy and elusive Ousmane Dembele, who will be able to out-run him, and likes to draw a foul. 

It’s a match-up that we can take advantage of here, as without Mbappe, Dembele is likely to be the focal point of the French counter-attacks. I think Ake will have to foul him at some point. 

Check out our other Euro 2024 Betting Tips here.