England vs Netherlands Prediction: Gakpo to follow Swiss lead against Three Lions

Ahead of England's Euro 2024 semi-final tie with the Netherlands at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund on Wednesday (20:00, ITV1), the Betfred Insights team are delivering their predictions for the big match.

So, without further ado, here is my England vs Netherlands prediction, as Gareth Southgate and Ronald Koeman go head-to-head in a bid to reach the tournament's final against either Spain or France on Sunday.

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Southgate has a couple of big selection decisions to make ahead of Wednesday's match with Marc Guehi back from suspension and Luke Shaw making his comeback from injury against the Swiss.

Ezri Konsa performed admirably stepping in for Guehi last Saturday. Still, the Crystal Palace defender is England's Player of the Tournament so far by a country mile. He will surely return in front of Jordan Pickford alongside John Stones and Kyle Walker as part of a three-man defence with Bukayo Saka deployed as a right wing-back - much to the chagrin of Arsenal fans.

Whether Shaw is fit enough to take Trippier's spot at left wing-back remains to be seen, however.

Declan Rice and Kobbie Mainoo will hold things down in central midfield to allow a front three of Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane to work their magic, with Southgate seemingly reluctant to bench either Foden or Kane, despite their respective struggles.

In contrast, Koeman's defence seems pretty nailed on with goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen behind a back four of Denzel Dumfries, Stefan de Vrij, Virgil van Dijk and Nathan Ake.

The midfield trio is expected to be Tijjani Reijnders, Jerdy Schouten and Xavi Simons again, but Koeman has a couple of dilemmas in attack.

Cody Gakpo is the tournament's joint-top scorer and will play from the left, but Memphis Depay and Steven Bergwijn are fighting to keep their spots, particularly the latter after he was hauled off at half-time for Wout Weghorst against Turkey.

England vs Netherlands Odds

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The Netherlands are 11/5 to triumph inside regulation time on Wednesday, giving them an implied win probability of 31.3%, while favourites England can be found at 13/8, or a 38.1% chance, to take the victory inside 90 minutes.

The draw, which would send the tie to extra time and potentially penalties, is priced at 15/8.

Kane (4/1) is the shortest price to open the scoring in Dortmund, with Dutch duo Depay and Gakpo (both 7/1) first up for their country in the first goalscorer market.

Cody Gakpo 2+ shots on target (90 mins) @ 7/2

This is my preferred single-selection value bet on Wednesday.

Alongside Jamal Musiala (Germany), Georges Mikautadze (Georgia) and Ivan Schranz (Slovakia), Gakpo is top scorer at Euro 2024 with three goals so far, and the Liverpool forward thought he had added a fourth against Turkey on Saturday before it was given as an own-goal.

Gakpo is averaging 1.6 shots on target per game at the tournament and only one of the six players to have registered more - Kylian Mbappe - are still live in the competition, with the likes of Kai Havertz (2.2) and Cristiano Ronaldo (two) already knocked out.

Considering this statistic, I'm slightly surprised to see five players - Kane, Toney, Watkins (all 9/4), Weghorst (11/4) and Depay (3/1) - priced shorter than Gakpo in this market on Wednesday.

Toney and Watkins won't start for the Three Lions, and Weghorst is probably unlikely to for the Oranje, while Kane (0.8) and Depay (0.6) aren't even averaging one shot on target per game.

Gakpo has registered eight shots on target at Euro 2024 - two v Poland, one v France, one v Austria, three v Romania, and one v Turkey - and will back himself to record at least one or two on Wednesday.

England's defence has been one of their stronger points in Germany, with just three goals conceded across five games so far.

However, in their second group game against Denmark, midfielder Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg managed to get four of his five shots on target, while Switzerland striker Breel Embolo scored from one of his two shots on target against England last Saturday.

Gakpo knows England are not impenetrable, and as the Netherlands' most in-form forward, he will feel emboldened to get as many shots away as possible, and I trust the accuracy of his efforts to land a couple on target in Dortmund.

Bet Builder - Tijjani Reijnders 2+ shots, Xavi Simons 1+ shots, Virgil van Dijk 1+ shots & 2+ fouls, Harry Kane 1+ fouls, Denzel Dumfries 2+ fouls, Jude Bellingham 1+ fouls (90 mins) @ 33/1

With seven elements required to come together, this 33/1 selection is more of a long shot, but the statistics do point towards this having a chance.

For one, I've picked out six players who are all likely to start and play the majority, if not all, of the 90-plus minutes in regulation time, which gives the bet builder as much time to land as possible.

Firstly, I'm backing AC Milan's Reijnders to power through midfield and shoot at least twice. Saturday's victory over Turkey was actually the first time he failed to record at least one shot in a match at Euro 2024, but he's still averaging two shots per game at the tournament having shot four times v Poland, once v France, twice v Austria, and three times v Romania.

I've already mentioned the five shots Denmark's Hojbjerg - not particularly renowned as an attacking midfielder - managed against the Three Lions in the group stage, while his midfield partner Morten Hjulmand also scored from one of the two shots he had against them.

Also expected to be among the shot takers on Wednesday are Dutch duo Simons and Van Dijk. Simons has had at least one shot in every game he has played at the tournament, averaging 1.6 shots per game despite starting one on the bench, while Van Dijk took exactly one shot in the Netherlands' first four matches before being snuffed out by Turkey last weekend.

England aren't blessed with many aerial assets, so I expect the Dutch to target the likes of Guehi and Trippier at set-pieces, with Van Dijk sure to be the intended recipient for many of their deliveries.

I'm also expecting to see the Oranje captain in a physical battle with his England counterpart Kane all game. The Liverpool skipper has committed more fouls (12) than any other player at Euro 2024, averaging 2.4 fouls per game, while Kane has been fouled an average of twice per game at the tournament.

Kane hasn't been shy in making fouls himself, however, with one in the last 16 against Slovakia and two in Saturday's quarter-final with Switzerland lifting his average to one per game.

His teammate, Bellingham, is averaging the same number, with three of his fouls coming in the knockouts, too.

Then we come to Dumfries, who is another prolific fouler, making seven across his first three games v Poland (two), France (four) and Romania (one) before going clean against Turkey.

Correct score - 2-2 (90 mins) @ 16/1

I'm torn between 1-1 or 2-2 on Wednesday, but I'm opting for the more positive correct score of 2-2, hoping that we see a more entertaining England game.

Based on what we've seen from the Three Lions so far, it feels unlikely, but we have to remember there is another team - Netherlands - also playing, and Koeman's side have been involved in more exciting encounters at Euro 2024.

Four of their five matches have produced at least three goals, with the Dutch scoring exactly twice in all four.

Meanwhile, both teams have scored in each of England's knockout ties so far, and the hope is that their attackers are starting to find a bit of form.

England vs Netherlands (Wed): We will be Top Price or joint Top Price on Netherlands to beat England in 90 minutes with selected bookmakers using oddschecker.com for the comparison (Available from 09:30 Wednesday)

England vs Netherlands (Wed): Build your own Bet Builder (3/1+) of 4+ legs on England vs Netherlands and get 100% of your stake back in Free Bets if it loses. (Credited within 48 hours – 7 day expiry).

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