Spanish Grand Prix 2024 Predictions: Sainz could shine on home track

Formula 1 returns to Europe this weekend with the Spanish Grand Prix and a chance to assess the current strength of the teams on a traditional track after recent visits to a number of quirky venues.

Read below for my Spanish Grand Prix 2024 predictions and all the latest betting odds.

While there was plenty of drama at Monaco and Canada, neither of those is a great circuit to assess the true performance level of cars, whereas the Circuit de Catalunya, regularly used as a test track, should give a clearer picture of where everyone stands.

Max Verstappen won for the sixth time in this season's nine races in Montreal, but it was a somewhat fortunate success as Lando Norris lost the lead due to a safety-car period.

The world champion leads this year's standings by 56 points but McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes all appear to have reduced the advantage Red Bull has enjoyed in recent seasons and another close race is in prospect.

Spanish Grand Prix Odds

Carlos Sainz podium finish @ 9/4

Verstappen and Red Bull should be glad to get back to a traditional race circuit this week after their car struggled to ride curbs at both Monaco and Canada, hindering their performance.

The Dutch driver was able to make the best of a tricky weekend in Montreal, emerging with a win, and he looks the right favourite for the race at a circuit where Red Bull's aerodynamic prowess should make them the team to beat again.

Verstappen became the youngest-ever F1 race winner in his first drive for Red Bull in 2016 after being promoted from Toro Rosso in mid-season, and he has been on the podium there in each of the last six years, winning in 2022 and 2023.

With McLaren and Ferrari already having recorded race wins this season and Mercedes turning in a much-improved performance in Canada, it should be a lively battle at the front and Norris will fancy his chances of challenging for a second win of the season.

A better value bet on the race, though, may be to back Ferrari's Carlos Sainz to be on the podium at his home event. The Italian team have taken an updated car to Barcelona as they bid to put a wet and miserable weekend in Canada behind them and that could propel them to the front of the chasing pack again.

Sainz has a solid record at his home race, finishing in the points there in all nine of his starts for Toro Rosso, Renault, McLaren and Ferrari. He already has a race win this season in Australia and three other podium finishes.

With Red Bull's Sergio Perez hampered by a three-place grid penalty, the Ferraris should be in good shape to challenge for the top spots and the disparity in the prices for a top-three finish between Sainz and his team-mate Charles Leclerc looks too big.

Yuki Tsunoda points finish @ 10/11

With the top four teams of Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes all looking to be in good shape now that Mercedes are back on track with their development, points are becoming increasingly hard to come by for the midfield teams.

Aston Martin also improved in Canada to finish sixth and seventh, but the Visa Cash App RB team have been doing a good job of hoovering up any crumbs that fall from the top table and Yuki Tsunoda is worth backing to secure his sixth points finish of the season.

The Japanese driver is 10th in the standings with 19 points having bagged two seventh places, and eighth and two 10th places this season and has generally outperformed his more experienced team-mate Daniel Ricciardo, whose eighth place in Canada was his first grand prix points finish of the year.

Check out our F1 Betting Tips here.