Tour de France Stage 6 Predictions: Cavendish for the double in Dijon
After a historic day for Mark Cavendish on Wednesday, Thursday brings the Tour de France stage which his Astana-Qazaqstan Team had identified as his best shot of the 2024 race. It’s a 162.5km cruise between Macon and Dijon which ought to play right into the hands of the sprint kings, led by the 35-time stage winner (live from 12:00 BST on Eurosport 1, 14:00 BST on ITV4).
With almost no elevation to speak of, save for a 1.6km cat 4 climb in the first 10km of the stage, this should be a serene ride through the country making way for a frenzied dash for the line in Dijon. My Tour de France Stage 6 predictions won’t suppose that Cavendish will take it easy now that the record books have been rewritten.
Despite being pipped by the history maker yesterday, Jasper Philipsen is given favouritism on Thursday at 11/8. Cavendish is second on the odds-makers’ list at 7/4, with Arnaud De Lie at 7/1 following his fourth-place finish on Wednesday. Dylan Groenewegen can be got at 9/1, Mads Pedersen is 14/1 and stage-three winner Biniam Girmay is on offer at 18/1.
Biniam Girmay made the most of a crash 2km from home to take the Tour’s first sprint in Turin on Monday, while Wednesday saw Cavendish reach the mark the entire cycling world had been anticipating as he surpassed Eddy Merckx’s long-standing record for stage wins at Le Tour.
Stage six is the second-easiest of this year’s race, behind stage 10 to Saint-Amand-Montrond, due to its incredible flatness once the cat 4 climb at Col du Bois Clair has been dealt with in the first 10km. Of all the stages, this one seems best set up for Cav.
A breakaway soon after that six-per-cent climb is likely, but there are few dangers in this course and so the sprinters’ teams should have little difficulty in managing the gap and making their move at the right time to put their leaders into a position to pounce.
The fact that the last 800m is a straight drag means that lead-out trains should be well drilled, but it also suggests that Cavendish can use all his guile and know-how to find the perfect spot to cause trouble for the likes of Jasper Philipsen and Dylan Groenewegen just as he did on Wednesday.
Mark Cavendish @ 7/4
This is the one stage more than any other which suits Cavendish. The pure sprinter that he is, he ought to love the final 800m so long as he gets what he needs out of his Astana Qazaqstan team-mates and attaches himself to the right wheel at the right time in the crucial final couple of hundred.
Whereas earlier in his career there were undeserving claims that he relied too heavily on lead-out specialist Mark Renshaw at HTC-High Road, Quick-Step and Team Dimension Data, more recent years have seen him find increasingly novel ways to plot his route to victory. And Wednesday’s win was the perfect example of that.
So even should he not get the ideal support from his team, expect him to find a way to get a jump by using other lead-out trains to his advantage. Now that he has finally reached 35, he may find 36 following immediately after.
Dylan Groenewegen E/W @ 9/1
I’ve been backing Jasper Philipsen for the most part, but Dylan Groenewegen also deserves a bit of love, and he offers that bit more value at 9/1 with an implied probability of 10%.
A five-time stage winner in the greatest race of all, the Dutchman is another born sprinter who just needs the right jump to get the job done. He was regularly outdone by Philipsen last year, failing to get a single success while the Belgian triumphed four times, but he was so often in the frame and could be again here.
After finishing a disappointing fifth in Turin and not figuring in the vital moment in Saint Vulbas on Wednesday, I believe he’ll be extra motivated to have a say heading into Dijon and this might be his time to shine. I’m on the each-way as a cover in case he is the victim of a historic Cavendish burst, while Philipsen’s price is just too narrow for me to back him for the top three.
You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.
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