Tour de France Predictions: 4/1 Pogacar and 7/2 Evenepoel to win prized jerseys
There’s nothing quite like the Tour de France, and in some ways this year’s centrepiece of the cycling session will be nothing like the Tour de France. For the first time ever, the race will not finish in Paris, while stage one sees an unprecedented test up the mountains of Italy and San Marino.
Anyone’s Tour de France predictions will need to take into account the rather different elements to this year’s map but also the damage done to Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel and more in the run-up to Le Tour.
Tour de France Betting Tips
Tadej Pogacar is the clear favourite to win the General Classification at 8/15, with Jonas Vingegaard at 5/2, Primoz Roglic 8/1 and Remco Evenepoel available at 16/1. Pogacar is the 4/1 joint-favourite for the King of the Mountains jersey alongside Lidl-Trek's Giulio Ciccone, while Jasper Philipsen is an 8/13 bet for the Points Classification and UAE Team Emirates are massive 4/7 market leaders for the team title ahead of Ineos Grenadiers, who are 3/1.
Like never before, Saturday’s first stage from Florence to Rimini might set the tone for the entire race. And that’s because the 3,600 metres of climbing marks a record for the Grand Depart of any Tour de France.
That ensures that reigning champion Vingegaard will be denied the soft landing he could really have done with in his first action since a devastating crash on stage four of April’s Itzulia Basque Country which saw him break a collarbone, multiple ribs and suffer a punctured lung.
He also comes into his attempt at a third straight title without his most valued domestique, Sepp Kuss, who contracted Covid-19 in recent weeks and has failed to shake off elements of the illness. That is a massive blow to Team Visma-Lease A Bike, who swept the board in the Grand Tours last year thanks to Kuss’ shock win at the Vuelta a Espana.
There’s also the added complication this year in that any rider who sees their jersey hopes ended early may well retire from the event early in order to prioritise the Paris Olympics. That could well apply to Vingegaard if the race favourite and fellow two-time champion Tadej Pogacar takes a sizeable lead in the opening week around l’Hexagone.
Tadej Pogacar to win the King of the Mountains Classification @ 4/1
The Slovenian is expected to start well after a commanding win at the Giro d’Italia in May which came in at almost 10 minutes, and if he can cut his great rival adrift then the Dane might play the pragmatic card given his near-three-month layoff and the extreme nature of his injuries in the Basque Country.
That crash involved other big names who will be on the start line in Florence, including Vingegaard’s former teammate Primoz Roglic, now riding for Bora-Hansgrohe, and 2022 Vuelta champion Remco Evenepoel.
The Belgian is fancied to compete for yellow at Le Tour, but he could be another to suffer from the lack of preparation, with his seventh-place finish at the Criterium du Dauphine earlier in June being his only competitive activity since sustaining a broken collarbone and scapula in that pile-up in Spain.
Evenepoel also needs to consider where his ambitions lie after an underwhelming Vuelta in 2023, which led many observers to question whether stage wins rather than GC contention ought to be his primary focus in future Grand Tours.
All of which is to say that there are too many question marks over everyone other than Pogacar to not tip the Slovenian for a third TdF title, but that makes him anything but a value bet. He’s the 8/15 favourite to take yellow in Nice in three weeks’ time, but maybe his win in Italy was a guide as to where to find something worth a punt.
His dominance over the hills won him the King of the Mountains jersey as well as his runaway yellow around the Bel Paese, and that feat could easily be replicated in France given the mountainous profile of this year’s route and his tendency to ram home his advantage on the more arduous days of these three-week stage battles.
Remco Evenepoel to win the Young Rider Classification @ 7/2
I’ve mentioned Evenepoel and the uncertainties over his ability to challenge for multiple Grand Tour titles already, but I do think he could have something to say on his Tour de France debut in 2024.
While the Ineos Grenadiers’ Carlos Rodriguez and Pogacar’s Team UAE teammate Juan Ayuso are 11/8 and 11/4 respectively, I find Evenepoel a compelling proposition for the white jersey in the Young Rider Classification.
He showed even after his blowup on the ascent to the Observatorio Astrofisico de Javalambre in last year’s Vuelta that he has plenty of moxie, racking up two incredible solo stage wins later in the event to win the overall Combativity Award and enjoy two three-day spells in the white before going on to clinch the polka dot jersey for his heroics up the mountains.
To me, he is one of the most exciting day-to-day prospects in the race, so I like the look of the 7/2 odds on him being the best of the young riders over the course of the 21 stages.
You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.
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