India v Australia Prediction: Back Melbourne Stars duo…to star

It’s India v Australia on Monday, June 24 (15:30, Sky Sports Cricket) at Gros Islet as an India side with one and a half feet in the semis play an Australia side drinking in last-chance saloon after defeat to Afghanistan in the early hours of Sunday.

James Pacheco, with pockets full of profit after successfully picking 4/1 shot Kuldeep Yadav for top India bowler in his only Saturday tip, tells you why Melbourne Stars pair Adam Zampa (100/30) and Marcus Stoinis (6/1) are carrying his money this time in his Australia vs India Predictions...

Australia

Defeat to Afghanistan on Sunday morning has left them in something of a tricky position.

A win here and they’ll probably be just fine given their superior net run rate compared to Afghanistan but a defeat and a probable Afghan win over Bangladesh and they’ll be out.

And you’d think India would be in no mood to be doing them any sort of favours in terms of taking their foot off the gas. If India go through to the semis, win that and have to potentially play one of the two in the final- Afghanistan or the Aussies - who would they rather it was? Exactly.

It was more a case of Rashid’s men winning the game than Australia losing it because they didn’t do too much wrong. They just came up against an inspired bowling performance, who took their chances and made the best use of a complex batting wicket by batting first and putting scoreboard pressure on Australia.

Remarkably, Pat Cummins took his second hat-trick in two T20I matches which is (unsurprisingly) a record but that will all be meaningless if they don’t get through here.

Josh Hazlewood has been a bit disappointing and could be replaced by Mitchell Starc, who was dropped for the last one. They’re likely to stick with Ashton Agar, who went wicketless but conceded just 17 runs from his four overs

Possible XI: Warner, Head, Marsh, Maxwell, Stoinis, David, Wade, Agar, Cummins, Starc, Zampa.

India

India aren’t officially in the semis yet but they’re as good as there.

They’d need to lose this one heavily and then Afghanistan would have to beat Bangladesh very comfortably for them to miss out.

We didn’t learn much from their comfortable win over a Bangladesh side who is arguably the weakest in the Super 8 Stage. There will be a few concerns that all of Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant and Shivam Dube got to 30-odd without any of them kicking on but Hardik Pandya returned to form with a 50 off 27 that pretty much ruled out an unlikely chase by Bangladesh.

Then it was the usual story from Jasprit Bumrah (2-13) who is a contender for Player of the Tournament, while Kuldeep Yadav, our only bet ahead of the game at 4/1 for India top bowler, delivered for us with figures of 3-19.

They’re likely to be unchanged given they’ll be desperate to knock Australia out.

Possible XI: Sharma, Kohli, Pant, Sky, Dube, Pandya, Axar, Jadeja, Kuldeep. Arshdeep, Bumrah.

Pitch and conditions

Gros Islet is where South Africa and England played out that close win for the Proteas on Friday.

It’s a wicket where it’s easiest to score in the first 7 or 8 overs and then gets harder with pace off the ball making it difficult to score boundaries.

Batting first may be the way to go with 170 making it a hard chase and anything over 180 very competitive indeed.

Australia vs India Odds

It’s pretty much evens the pair. Well, not quite, India are 8/11, Australia 11/10 are you could probably make a case for either side.

India, unbeaten so far and with a wicket that may favour their bowlers more are just about justified favourites. Australia, desperate for a win and normally good in pressure situations, will be fancied by many in a rare occasion where they’re odds-against.

If the market can’t really split them, neither can I, so I won’t try to.

Australia Top Runscorer

No-one has really got going from Australia’s Top 4; it’s been more of a joint-effort whereby quick 30s and 40s have been valuable without anyone really going on to get a big score. Which is something skipper Mitch Marsh needs, with a top score of just 35 from six knocks. We can’t be interested in him at a skinny-looking 100/30.

Glenn Maxwell put on a ‘Big Show’ last time out and threatened to get them over the line with an excellent 59 on a challenging surface but he can be a bit feast or famine and we don’t think he’ll follow it up with another good score.

Openers David Warner and Travis Head are both 11/4 and have in their favour the fact it may be easier to score at the beginning; but they’re not the ones I like, either.

Marcus Stoinis (6/1), who plays his Big Bash cricket for the Melbourne Stars, has top-scored twice in six matches and looked in good touch throughout the tournament. He should get a decent hit here given India have plenty of wicket-takers so the fact he bats at 5 isn’t too much of a concern. It’s a big price for a man of his ability.

Australia Top Bowler

Pat Cummins has twice denied Adam Zampa top Aussie bowler honours over the last two matches with those back-to-back hat-tricks when it looked like the spinner had it wrapped up after taking two on each occasion.

But Zampa, also of the Melbourne Stars, is their top wicket-taker this tournament with 13, he always bowls his four and with a strike rate of 11 this World Cup, that suggests he’ll come very close to getting two wickets here, which may well be enough. 100/30 will do us just fine, though Maxwell at 13/2 isn’t the worst shout, either.

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...