Afghanistan v India Prediction: Look to the Sky, look at 4/1 Sky

It’s Afghanistan v India on Thursday, June 20 (15:30, Sky Sports Cricket) at Bridgetown as favourites India get their Super 8 campaign under way against an impressive Afghanistan.

James Pacheco likes the look of Sky Yadav for top India bat at 4/1 and thinks the Afghan opening pair can get to 18 runs before losing their first wicket as he takes us through the Super 8s match and his Afghanistan vs India Predictions...

Afghanistan

First mission: accomplished. They knocked out the normally super-consistent New Zealand after a comprehensive win a couple of weeks ago, then making light work of Uganda and Papua New Guinea in their matches against the underdogs. They didn’t have it all their own way though, being on the end of a Nicholas Pooran assault on Monday night that gave them too much to do in the chase.

But the Windies are looking good and as long as they’re not too disheartened from that defeat (why should they be, it was a dead rubber?), this represents their best-ever chance of making a World Cup semi in either format. They’re joined by Bangladesh (who they should beat), India and Australia in Group 1. One win from those last two games (if they do beat Bangladesh) and they will have made history.

Fazalhaq Farooqi is the leading wicket-taker in the tournament with 12, three ahead of the competition. Rahmanullah Gurbaz is the leading runscorer at the World Cup with 167 runs, three ahead of…Pooran. Gurbaz got a duck on Monday or else he could have been really far ahead. What odds pre-tournament on those two leading at this stage?

There’s still no place for Mujeeb Ur Rahman with Noor Ahmed preferred. For much how much longer?

Possible XI: Gurbaz, I Zadran, Naib, Omarzai, N Zadran, Nabi, Janat, Rashid, Ahmad, Naveen, Farooqi.

India

With their match against Canada rained off at the weekend, it seems a long time ago since they last played.

Three wins from three completed matches suggests all is well but it may not be as simple as that.

The bowling is certainly firing, with Arshdeep Singh and Hardik Pandya on seven wickets and Jasprit Bumrah on five from those three games. All three of those are going at under 6.25 an over.

The batting is struggling though, with no-one passing 100 runs across three knocks. Sky Yadav and Rishabh Pant at least each have a fifty to their name; Virat Kohli has just five runs to his.

But maybe those stats are all just a reflection of having played on the terror track that was New York which bowlers loved and batsmen hated.

Ravindra Jadeja has been the most underused player, batting once and bowling just three overs. Surprising because he’s normally the busiest. They’re likely to remain unchanged.

Possible XI: Sharma, Kohli, Pant, Sky, Dube, Pandya, Axar, Jadeja, Singh, Bumrah, Siraj.

Pitch and conditions

We’re at Bridgetown. This is where Australia posted and defended 165 against Oman, where Scotland chased Namibia’s 155 and where Australia passed 200 against England, one of only two matches where that happened.

So this is likely to be a much better batting track than most we’ve seen this tournament.

Hard to know what to do at the toss for the skipper winning it; easy to guess there won’t be any dew though because it’s a 10.30am local time start.

170-175 would be around par batting first but it might be tough to defend on this ground.

Afghanistan vs India Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Afghanistan vs India T20 World Cup market page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

It’s 2/9 India and 100/30 Afghanistan. Is a punt on the outsiders in a tournament that’s seen a few shocks already the smart move? Maybe not.

Rashid Khan’s troops have played India nine times in this format…and lost the lot. They did admittedly come incredibly close to breaking their duck when taking Rohit Sharma’s men to a Super Over earlier this year but even if they had won that, that head-to-head is pretty lopsided.

A trickier track than this may have suited Khan and co better because their strength is in the spin department, whereas a true surface probably plays into the hands of Kohli, Sharma, Pant and Sky.

But the biggest barrier of all to an upset may be the lack of belief that the outsiders can actually get over the line after what’s happened in the past.

India Top Runscorer

I’d be lying if I said there was a stand-out player, odds-wise, who represents a great value bet in terms of ability, form, or who may bat higher than most expect.

Instead, I’ll give you one of the top 2 or 3 T20 batsmen in the world who ticks the boxes of (in addition to that description): bats at four so should get a good chance to make his mark, has already played one superb knock of note this tournament with his unbeaten 50 against USA, and will enjoy a good wicket rather than a challenging one because it suits his style of play.

We can also add to the argument the fact that big guns like Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma look badly out of form. Pant has been good and we fear him but he’s a bit shorter at 18/5.

That 4/1 isn’t a bad price about a man who so often has made batting look easy with his 360 degree-game. Sky Yadav at 4/1 it is.

Afghanistan First Wicket Dismissal

A bet on Ireland not clearing 18 runs before their first wicket fell against Pakistan came good on Sunday with the rationale being that their openers were struggling and were up against some seriously good opening bowlers. Andy Balbirnie was out for 0 without the team having a run on the board.

Here it may pay to go the other way. As we know, Gurbaz and I Zadran are right up there with the tournament’s top run scorers and have got off to some good starts.

The unplayable Bumrah rarely bowls in the first four overs so the opening pair might get some respite in the form of Arshdeep and the sometimes erratic Mohammad Siraj in those first three or four overs. That may be enough time to get to 18 runs on what we suspect will be a good batting track, before having to face Bumrah.

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...