Texans vs Jaguars Prediction: Back the home underdog

Going into the season I'm not sure anyone expected two teams to make the playoffs from the AFC South but as we head into Week 12, that is a real possibility.

Those two sides that are in the running face one another in the early window on Sunday and @NFLGirlUK is here with her match preview along with her Texans vs Jaguars Best Bets...

It’s honestly surprising that the Houston Texans are entering into their Week 12 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars as the underdogs. Houston stomped the Jaguars earlier in the season, and they are looking better than ever. Meanwhile, the Jaguars recently snagged a huge win over the Tennessee Titans last weekend to stay ahead in the division.

Jacksonville overall has had moments that make you question their legitimacy as a Super Bowl candidate. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t really made a huge jump from last season to this one, but he’s still making enough plays to give us an exciting offense with a ton of weapons.

None have been more consistently effective than their running back Travis Etienne, who’s got 670 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Not to mention that he’s adding 282 receiving yards with another two touchdowns. He’s been the answer whenever the team needs a play on offense, and he’ll need to do a lot against a very talented Houston offense.

What worries me about this team is their defense. Josh Allen has been really good with 9.5 sacks this season, but nobody else has more than 2.5. Getting pressure on CJ Stroud will be a massive priority, and their overall underwhelming pass rush, combined with Houston's strong offensive line, could be a devastating combination for them.

Flipping over to the Texans, Stroud is a genuine MVP candidate. The rookie quarterback has thrown 2,962 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. Shockingly enough, three of those interceptions came last week in their win over the Arizona Cardinals. When he’s protected in the pocket, there’s a lot that can happen in this offense.

It also helps that they have built up so much receiver talent in Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz. And before I flip to the defense, I have to say how much better their rushing attack has been since they’ve moved past Dameon Pierce. Pierce has missed a few games with an injury, and gave the team a chance to use Devin Singletary, a move that they shouldn’t ever look back on now.

Singletary has 114 rushes for 471 yards and two touchdowns. Pierce has 109 rushes for 327 yards and one touchdown. There’s a massive difference in production, with the former standout at FAU going for 4.1 yards per carry, and Pierce mustering just 3.0.

With Singletary being explosive on the ground, it gives them even more room to throw the ball down the field and gain yardage. It’s a scary time to play against this Texans team, even if their defense isn’t the greatest.

When it comes to picking this game, I really do like the Texans again here. Divisional games are always confusing to predict, but Houston dominated this matchup earlier in the year. And that matchup had Pierce operating as the main back, with Stroud not playing with as much confidence. I also believe Houston was missing one or two key receivers in that game.

This feels like a matchup where the Texans will come out motivated to jump into first place in their division, and Stroud will outplay Lawrence. It’s going to be extremely tough though.

Match Odds:

The Jags come into this game just on the favourites side of the ledger according to the traders. You can back the road team to to ginto southern Texas and go away with the victory at 4/5. The home side are 21/20 straight-up.

It comes as no surprise that the point spread is very tight though, with Trevor Lawrence and company given a 1.5pt handicap.

Points are expected as the over/under line comes in at 47.5, which indicates that the market expects CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence to both have a good day.

Bet 1 - Houston to win at 21/20

If I like the home side to win and they are the underdogs, it totally makes sense for them to be one of the two picks from this game.

Houston have been one of the really nice surprises for the season and CJ Stroud should be in the MVP race. The way he's led this team to being very much in the playoff hunt has been quite spectacular. Jacksonville are good but they aren't great, so I'll take the Texans here.

Bet 2 - CJ Stroud over 299.5 Passing Yards @ 29/20

The season that CJ Stroud is putting together has probably shocked even his biggest fans coming out of college. The former Ohio State Buckeye has just been lighting it up and his passing stats the past three weeks have been 470, 356 and 336. The Jags D is good but the way this rookie sensation is playing, getting odds against on this prop bet feels like a value play.

You can check out all of our preview from around the National Football League on our main NFL Betting Tips index page...