Patriots vs Jaguars Predictions: Lawrence can take advantage of Pats’ defensive woes

The curtain comes down on the 2024 NFL London Games with a far from stellar, but nonetheless intriguing matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New England Patriots at Wembley on Sunday. 

The Jags played back-to-back games in London last year and won both, but were rolled over by the Chicago Bears last week at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to slip to 1-5 on the season, and now need to bounce back. 

What could help them do that is the form of their upcoming opponents, as the Patriots lost their fourth game on the bounce in a 41-21 defeat to the Houston Texans last week to fall to a similar 1-5 record, and the pressure is on both teams going into the Wembley showpiece. 

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Things are at least improving for the Jacksonville Jaguars on the injury front with only cornerback Tyson Campbell and running back Travis Etienne Jr. rated as questionable due to hamstring injuries. 

Tight end Evan Engram has recovered from his own hamstring problems, while defensive end Arik Armstead (shoulder) and wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) are back in contention after limited practice this week. 

The New England Patriots have potentially far more issues to contend with as tackle Vederian Lowe has been ruled out, while wide receiver Javon Baker (illness), linebackers Curtis Jacobs (knee) and Sione Takitaki (knee), guard Michael Jordan (ankle), running back Rhamondre Stevenson (foot) and cornerbacks Jonathan Jones (shoulder) and Marco Wilson (groin) all rated as questionable. 

There has been some good news for the Patriots this week though as rookie quarterback Drake Maye has been cleared to play after a knee issue had threatened his participation. 

Patriots vs Jaguars Odds

The Jaguars have been installed as 2/5 favourites for their second London appearance of the season, while the Patriots are on offer at 2/1 on the Money Line. 

New England are priced at 20/21 with a 5.5-point start in the handicap market, while the Jags are 20/23 to cover the spread, while the total points line has been set at 41.5 with under available at 20/21 and over at 20/23. 

Jaguars -5.5 @ 10/11

With both teams struggling with 1-5 records, it is not immediately obvious the best plan of attack for the game, particularly with problems on both sides of the ball. 

Jacksonville were well beaten in London last week but they did not help themselves with a number of dropped catches and the scoreline could have been a lot closer than it ultimately was, 35-16. 

That defeat came on the back of a 37-34 win over the Indianapolis Colts, while they only went down 24-20 to the Houston Texans, who beat the Patriots 41-21 last week. 

That is a formline that suggests the Jaguars may just be good enough to cover the spread on Sunday, particularly with the roster getting healthier with Evan Engram providing another option for Trevor Lawrence. 

The Patriots have been poor on defence, particularly against the pass, and Sunday might just be the time for Lawrence to thrive and ease the pressure on head coach Doug Pederson.

Trevor Lawrence 225+ Passing Yards & 2+ TD Passes @ 29/20

Given that we are backing Jacksonville to win, it could pay to back Lawrence to be the driving force behind their success. 

Obviously the Jags have continued to have problems but they are up against one of the weakest defences in the league and could just have too much. Lawrence threw for 234 yards and two TDs against the Bears last week, and should be capable of something similar against the Pats. The 2021 first overall draft pick had previously thrown for nearly 400 yards and two TDs in the win over the Colts in Week 5. 

Evan Engram and Tank Digsby provide decent support offensively, although the key target could be Brian Thomas Jr., who is ranked ninth with 424 receiving yards and three touchdowns, and looks a good shout at 13/10 to find the end zone. 

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