Bills vs Chiefs Predictions: KC to win high-scoring affair at Arrowhead
The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will add another chapter to their ongoing rivalry when the pair meet at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night (23:30, live on Sky Sports Main Event) in the AFC Championship game.
It’s a match-up between the number one and two seeds in the conference that many expected when the play-offs began and this looks set to be another epic encounter. Read on for my Bills vs Chiefs prediction, as well as the latest team news and match odds.
Team News
Patrick Mahomes, Jaylen Watson (both ankle), Mike Caliendo (shoulder) and Jawaan Taylor (knee) were all listed on the Chiefs' injury report this week, but they all participated in practice, so they'll suit up on Sunday.
Dion Dawkins and Taylor Rapp both missed practice for the Bills through illness and a back injury, and Matt Milano continues to recover from a bicep problem.
Damar Hamlin was a full participant in practice despite a rib issue, however Christian Benford is still recovering from a concussion and it remains to be seen whether he'll feature on Sunday.
The Chiefs are favoured on the moneyline at 10/13, giving them an implied win probability of 56.5%, while the Bills can be backed 11/10 to stop Kansas City's pursuit of a three-peat.
The spread is currently set at 1.5 and it's 10/11 for each side to cover.
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 @ 10/11
The Chiefs and Bills have squared off seven times since the Patrick Mahomes v Josh Allen era began in 2020, with Kansas City holding a 4-3 record in the head-to-head going into Sunday's AFC Championship game.
However, it should be noted that Buffalo's three wins all came in the regular season, and they are yet to get over the Kansas City hump in the play-offs. In comparison, three of the Chiefs’ wins have been deep into the post-season – one in the AFC Championship (2020) and two in the Divisional Round (2021 and 2023).
In any other era, I'd argue that Josh Allen is more than good enough to be a Super Bowl champion and NFL Championship MVP, but he's unfortunate enough to share the stage with Patrick Mahomes - a three-time winner of both.
This contest could become a slinging match considering the elite ability of both Allen and Mahomes, but the Chiefs will be fresher after already enjoying a bye week, and Buffalo had to overcome a gruelling contest with Baltimore in the Divisional Round.
I'm taking the Chiefs on Sunday, and I believe they'll cover too.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Over 48.5 points @ 20/21
When QBs like Mahomes and Allen take to the field, more often than not a lot of points are scored.
Mahomes has already cemented himself as one of the greats, and Allen is considered favourite for MVP this term, leading the Bills as the second-highest scoring offence in the league - only behind Detroit.
Buffalo will struggle if they can't contain the Chief's rushing offence, as this will provide Mahomes with options, and the points could really start to stack up.
In the last three play-off meetings between the teams, the combined points totals have been 62 (2020), 78 (2021) and 51 (2023), so a high-scoring affair looks likely on Sunday.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
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Remember to check out our NFL Betting Tips index page where we preview games live on Sky Sports along with a weekly Predictions column.
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