NFL Week 5 Predictions: Against the Spread & Straight Up Picks

Week 4 was very much a tale of two halves as whilst straight-up, we all had between nine and 11 predictions correct, when it came to against the spread, the spread as it were, was massive.

It was Alan who came away top of the pile with 11 wins and Neil wasn’t too far behind picking nine games correctly. It was a week to forget for Jonny and Adam however as they went 4-12 and 3-13 respectively. This means our season results (listed at the bottom of the preview) now has three of us batting above .500 ATS.

On to Week 5 where four teams (Browns, Buccaneers, Chargers & Seahawks) are on a bye meaning we are picking 14 games. As always all of our predictions are listed below along with a comment on each game…

NFL Week 5 Predictions & Picks

Friday – 1:20AM:

Bears (+6.5) @ Commanders

Picks ATS:

Adam: Bears
Alan: Commanders
Jonny: Commanders
Neil: Bears

Money Line: Bears 2/1 & Commanders 2/5

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Commanders
Alan: Commanders
Jonny: Commanders
Neil: Bears

Comments: Washington enters this game as a 6.5 point favourite and it’s not hard to see why. The Bears are 0-4 and somehow threw away a 28-7 3rd quarter lead against the Broncos on Sunday. QB Justin Fields went from Tom Brady to Brady Bunch in the last quarter and lost again despite throwing for 335 yards and four TD’s.

Meanwhile, the Commanders are 2-2 after a second straight loss but pushed the 4-0 Eagles all the way, before succumbing to an overtime defeat. Their Defense could feast on the Bears O-Line here and Chicago are a combined 2-8 ATS on the road since last season. – Adam

Sunday – 14:30:

Jaguars (+5.5) @ Bills (in London)

Picks ATS:

Adam: Bills
Alan: Bills
Jonny: Jaguars
Neil: Bills

Money Line: Jaguars 2/1 & Bills 2/5

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Bills
Alan: Bills
Jonny: Bills
Neil: Bills

Comments: I am a fan of the Jags and I think Trevor Lawrence is a QB who is getting there. I think their D is for real but there is one simple reason why I’m going for Buffalo here, they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders and I really don’t think Jacksonville are.

London may be the Jags second home and they do have a good record over here but beating a poor Atlanta Falcons team is nothing compared to what this Buffalo Bills team have in store. The way they played against a really good team in the Dolphins last week should be a wake-up call that they mean business. – Neil

Sunday – 18:00:

Texans (+2.5) @ Falcons

Picks ATS:

Adam: Texans
Alan: Texans
Jonny: Texans
Neil: Texans

Money Line: Texans 11/10 & Falcons 10/13

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Texans
Alan: Texans
Jonny: Texans
Neil: Texans

Comments: The Falcons will want to shake off their holiday blues in a hurry as they lost to the Jaguars at Wembley Stadium last Sunday. It marked the second-straight week that the Falcons failed to score at least 10 points, shining an increasingly bright spotlight on the team’s offensive deficiencies.

The Texans recorded a resounding 30-6 victory over the Steelers, taking them to 2-2 for the season, and I’ve been very impressed with their rookie QB, C.J. Stroud – he’s thrown for 1,212 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions through four games.

I think this could be a long afternoon for Atlanta, as they’ll have their hands full here trying to contain the Texans. – Jonny

Panthers (+9.5) @ Lions

Picks ATS:

Adam: Lions
Alan: Panthers
Jonny: Panthers
Neil: Panthers

Money Line: Panthers 17/5 & Lions 2/9

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Lions
Alan: Lions
Jonny: Lions
Neil: Lions

Comments: The 3-1 Lions entertain the hapless 0-4 Panthers in the Motor City. All indicators pointing to a cosy home win? Hard not to come to exactly that conclusion.

The Lions head the NFC North right now and will be rightly proud of their start. Carolina prop up the South, and will be horrified by theirs.

The one ray of light is that they’ve been ‘in’ all the matches so far but haven’t found a way to fashion a win. I doubt this will be a turning point, frankly – Alan

Titans (+1.5) @ Colts

Picks ATS:

Adam: Titans
Alan: Titans
Jonny: Colts
Neil: Colts

Money Line: Titans 10/11 & Colts 10/11

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Titans
Alan: Titans
Jonny: Colts
Neil: Colts

Comments: Two highly capable sides (on a going day) with 2-2 records get it on at Lucas Oil. Indy nearly pulled back the Rams last time, while King Henry was having a day of it and then some for the Titans against the Bengals.

Titans are far more effective against the run than their rival, and if you factor Derrick into that equation it’s not hard to think that the Colts might be up against it. I’ll be backing accordingly – Alan

Giants (+11.5) @ Dolphins

Picks ATS:

Adam: Dolphins
Alan: Giants
Jonny: Giants
Neil: Dolphins

Money Line: Giants 4/1 & Dolphins 2/11

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Dolphins
Alan: Dolphins
Jonny: Dolphins
Neil: Dolphins

Comments: This game is a massive spread and to take a team to cover 11.5 points is always something you have to think carefully about. The big problem here is the Giants really aren’t any good and they just lost by 21 at home to an average Seattle team in the Monday Night game.

The G Men have an Offensive Line that is held together by blu-tac and are one injury away from picking out a fan from the stands to play Right Guard. Miami feast on a shaky Daniel Jones all afternoon and win going away – Neil

Saints (+1.5) @ Patriots

Picks ATS:

Adam: Saints
Alan: Patriots
Jonny: Saints
Neil: Patriots

Money Line: Saints 4/5 & Patriots 21/20

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Saints
Alan: Patriots
Jonny: Saints
Neil: Patriots

Comments: Two big beasts clash at Gillette Stadium looking to improve upon what are thus far very ordinary starts to the new campaign.

The 1-3 Pats have had a tough run of fixtures, no question, but at Dallas last time out QB Mac Jones threw 2 picks and all the offense could muster overall was a measly field goal.

Saints have found scoring troublesome too and it’s no surprise to see the total pitched pretty low, as I write, at 39.5. I’d have been around the 37.5 mark.

This is a pick ‘em for me and the fact that New England are shading favouritism is neither here nor there. By some margin the trickiest match of the week to fathom – Alan

Ravens (-3.5) @ Steelers

Picks ATS:

Adam: Ravens
Alan: Ravens
Jonny: Ravens
Neil: Ravens

Money Line: Ravens 8/15 & Steelers 6/4

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Ravens
Alan: Ravens
Jonny: Ravens
Neil: Ravens

Comments: This one should be a cracker – the latest installment of one of the oldest rivalries in the NFL.

The Ravens come into this game off the back of a 28-3 victory over Cleveland, taking them to 3-1 for the season. It’s easy to see why they’re the favourites for this match as I was disappointed with the Steelers in their loss to Houston.

The Ravens’ defense kept them in the Browns game, giving up just 166 total yards and I think that’ll be the difference one again here.

However, this is a rivalry match so form book can go out of the window. – Jonny

Sunday – 21:05:

Bengals (-2.5) @ Cardinals

Picks ATS:

Adam: Cardinals
Alan: Bengals
Jonny: Bengals
Neil: Cardinals

Money Line: Bengals 8/13 & Cardinals 13/10

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Cardinals
Alan: Bengals
Jonny: Bengals
Neil: Cardinals

Comments: I really don’t know what to make of the Bengals. They are 1-3. Joe Burrow doesn’t look right and their only win was at home to a Rams team who did everything they could to lose that game. Yet they are probably still a Super Bowl contender if they can get it right.

I picked them last week thinking they were going to get out of their funk. They got beat big. Now I can’t pick them until I see for sure that they are back to where they want to be and Arizona have at least shown something – particularly at home. Give me the Cardinals in the home upset. – Neil

Eagles (-3.5) @ Rams

Picks ATS:

Adam: Eagles
Alan: Eagles
Jonny: Eagles
Neil: Rams

Money Line: Eagles 4/9 & Rams 9/5

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Eagles
Alan: Eagles
Jonny: Eagles
Neil: Rams

Comments: I successfully tipped up the Rams last week to both cover the spread and on the money line against the Colts, but this is a different test entirely for Matt Stafford and co. The Eagles are, for me (and probably most people), the best team in the NFC, and they’re 4-0 for a reason.

It’s fair to say the Rams have surprised me so far, but a victory over Philly would really surprise me. – Jonny

Sunday – 21:25:

Jets (+1.5) @ Broncos

Picks ATS:

Adam: Jets
Alan: Jets
Jonny: Jets
Neil: Broncos

Money Line: Jets Evens & Broncos 5/6

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Jets
Alan: Jets
Jonny: Broncos
Neil: Broncos

Comments: Both sides come into this fixture on the back of 1-3 records and the bookies are struggling to split them. The Broncos had a mad comeback win, for their first victory of the season, against the Bears from 28-7 down but looked atrocious in the first half.

Meanwhile, the Jets took the Chiefs all the way in New York, with Zach Wilson finally living up to that no.2 pick in the second half, before a late fumble sealed the deal and sent them to their third straight loss.

It seemed to me like something clicked in Wilson last week and HC Robert Saleh said they will win a lot of football games, if he can play like that again. I think they will start doing just that at Mile High. – Adam

Chiefs (-3.5) @ Vikings

Picks ATS:

Adam: Vikings
Alan: Vikings
Jonny: Chiefs
Neil: Chiefs

Money Line: Chiefs 4/9 & Vikings 15/8

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Chiefs
Alan: Vikings
Jonny: Chiefs
Neil: Chiefs

Comments: What the hell is going on with the Taylor Swift Chiefs? Sorry, I mean Kansas City Chiefs. The Super Bowl champions appear to have become a side-show to the multi-Grammy winning artist’s regular trips to watch her new bae Travis Kelce play.

All joking aside, the Chiefs were extremely fortunate to win again in New York and their offense is spluttering at best. After racing out to a 17-0 lead, MVP Pat Mahomes started throwing the ball to the Jets defenders and had to rely on his underrated scrambling game to dig them out of the doo-doo. That said, the Chiefs are still 3-1, despite not clicking into gear yet.

As for the Vikings, they picked up their first victory of the season, beating another 0-3 side in the Panthers, in an unimpressive 21-13 win in Week 4. This doesn’t look like the side that topped the NFC North last season with a 13-4 record.

That said, I think the Chiefs will make heavy weather of this one again and Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson will keep it tight enough for the Vikes to win ATS. – Adam

Monday 01:20:

Cowboys (+3.5) @ 49ers

Picks ATS:

Adam: 49ers
Alan: 49ers
Jonny: 49ers
Neil: 49ers

Money Line: Cowboys 6/4 & 49ers 8/15

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: 49ers
Alan: 49ers
Jonny: 49ers
Neil: 49ers

Comments: Another classic NFL rivalry that is steeped in history. Possibly the game of the week?

The 49ers have been electric to watch so far, boasting a 4-0 record and remarkably, they’ve won 15-straight regular-season games. This one will certainly have a bit of bite to it too, as San Francisco have eliminated the Cowboys from the playoffs each of the past two seasons.

‘America’s Team’ have been solid on the defensive side of the ball, but does anyone have an answer for Christian McCaffrey at the moment?

The Niners stay unbeaten here for me, and I fancy them to cover the spread. – Jonny

Tuesday 01:15:

Packers (-2.5) @ Raiders

Picks ATS:

Adam: Packers
Alan: Raiders
Jonny: Raiders
Neil: Packers

Money Line: Packers 10/13 & Raiders 11/10

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Packers
Alan: Raiders
Jonny: Raiders
Neil: Packers

Comments: The Packers come into this game as a narrow favourite, despite falling to a sizeable loss in Week 4 against the Lions. That defeat saw Green Bay fall back to a .500 record and 2nd place behind Detroit in the NFC North. Jordan Love threw for two interceptions and is struggling to convince as the replacement to Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau.

Meanwhile, the Raiders fell to a third straight defeat against the Chargers, despite having a huge chunk of the support at So-Fi. Stand in QB, Aidan O’Connell struggled badly, being sacked six times by Khalil Mack and will surely sit on Sunday if Jimmy Garoppolo is fit to play.

Jimmy G has been playing like he had concussion in recent weeks so that shouldn’t make a huge difference here and I see the Packers taking the road win, in a battle of two poor looking teams. – Adam

Season Records:

Against the Spread: