NFL Week 4 Predictions: Against the Spread & Straight Up Picks

A strong Week 3 for the NFL tipsters here at Betfred Insights as all four of us were better than 50:50 Against the Spread with two 9-7 records, a 10-6 and a very impressive 11-5 from Jonny.

A couple of big shocks hurt us straight up as we all had Jacksonville and Dallas winning but still 8-8 from me was the low-point, Jonny went 9-7 with both Adam and Alan 10-6.

Our season-long records are at the bottom of the page. Please read on for all our picks Against the Spread and Straight Up along with a selection of comments on every fixture from Week 4 of the NFL Season…

*All prices/lines subject to change but are accurate as of 10:00 AM Wednesday 27 September, 2023

NFL Week 4 Predictions & Picks:

Friday – 1:20AM:

Lions (-1.5) @ Packers

Picks ATS:

Adam: Lions
Alan: Packers
Jonny: Lions
Neil: Lions

Money Line: Lions 5/6 & Packers Evens

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Lions
Alan: Packers
Jonny: Lions
Neil: Lions

Comments: Both sides go into this NFC North showdown with 2-1 records after wins in week 3 over the Falcons and Saints respectively. That comeback win for the Packers showed resilience but they were awful in going 17-0 down in the first place, with Jordan Love continuing to struggle with the offense.

Detroit continue to improve under Dan Campbell and if Jared Goff can cut out the interceptions here and find receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown with regularity, the Lions can pick up a road win at a balmy Lambeau, to top the division. – AR

Sunday – 18:00:

Falcons (+3.5) @ Jaguars

Picks ATS:

Adam: Falcons
Alan: Jaguars
Jonny: Jaguars
Neil: Jaguars

Money Line: Falcons 7/5 & Jaguars 4/7

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Jaguars
Alan: Jaguars
Jonny: Jaguars
Neil: Jaguars

Comments: We’re back at Wembley baby, as the home-away-from-home Jags take on the Falcons in their first ever international game.

This should be like a home game for Trevor Lawrence’s boys and boy, do they need that home advantage right now.

Jacksonville were soundly beaten by the Houston Texans in Week 3 , despite being double digit favourites and have now lost back-to-back home games.

Atlanta looked equally poor in their recent loss to the Lions, with no touchdowns recorded by an impotent offense.

I think this one could be a really tight game with the Jaguars just getting over the line. – AR

Dolphins (+2.5) @ Bills

Picks ATS:

Adam: Dolphins
Alan: Bills
Jonny: Dolphins
Neil: Dolphins

Money Line: Dolphins 5/4 & Bills 4/6

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Dolphins
Alan: Bills
Jonny: Dolphins
Neil: Dolphins

Comments: One of the standouts of the weekend for me. Miami are scoring for fun, and the Bills are one of those serious sides you just can’t ignore. Both sit at 8/1 for Super Bowl glory in February – fancy that?

Home field could be key, and the Bills’ D will be examined thoroughly. Added spice, given that it’s an AFC table-topper – can the Dolphins maintain the only unbeaten run in the Conference? This is a must-watch – AF

Vikings (-3.5) @ Panthers

Picks ATS:

Adam: Panthers
Alan: Vikings
Jonny: Panthers
Neil: Panthers

Money Line: Vikings 1/2 & Panthers 13/8

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Vikings
Alan: Vikings
Jonny: Panthers
Neil: Panthers

Comments: Both teams are 0-3 coming into this weekend’s matchup, so I imagine something has got to give at the Bank of America Stadium.

Will Bryce Young be fit enough to return for Carolina? He missed the defeat to Seattle, and it could be a huge blow if he’s absent again here.

I think on paper, the Vikings are the more talented team, and should have closed out the game against the Charger last week to be sitting 1-2 rather than 0-3.

However, I think there’s more value in backing the Panthers on both the money line and the spread, so that’s what I’m going for. – JW

Broncos (-3.5) @ Bears

Picks ATS:

Adam: Broncos
Alan: Bears
Jonny: Bears
Neil: Bears

Money Line: Broncos 4/7 & Bears 7/5

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Broncos
Alan: Bears
Jonny: Bears
Neil: Bears

Comments: Urgh, do I have to pick a winner in this one? Both sides were utter trash in their Week 4 games, with the Broncos shipping 70 (SEVENTY) to the Dolphins and the Bears going 41-0 down at Arrowhead against the Chiefs, before Andy Reid rested the starters and Justin Fields picked up some garbage time points.

As a result both sides are 0-3 going into this one and I don’t really have faith in either franchise to pull off the victory. However, I’m going to side with the experience of Russell Wilson and Sean Payton over a Bears side that just haven’t got going. – AR

Ravens (+2.5) @ Browns

Picks ATS:

Adam: Browns
Alan: Ravens
Jonny: Browns
Neil: Browns

Money Line: Ravens 6/5 & Browns 20/29

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Browns
Alan: Ravens
Jonny: Browns
Neil: Browns

Comments: Two 2-1 sides clash at FirstEnergy Stadium. Browns will lament for many weeks the sad long-term loss of the magnificent Nick Chubb, while Lamar Jackson (Ravens) is arguably in slightly better nick at QB at present than his opposite number Deshaun Watson in terms of completion %, and one less interception thrown.

I know – it’s a whole 3 weeks of stats to go on. This could have been a a pick-’em for me, and it’s beautifully balanced on a knife-edge – AF

Steelers (-3.5) @ Texans

Picks ATS:

Adam: Texans
Alan: Texans
Jonny: Steelers
Neil: Texans

Money Line: Steelers 8/13 & Texans 13/10

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Texans
Alan: Texans
Jonny: Steelers
Neil: Texans

Comments: The Texans were impressive in their thumping of Jacksonville last week, but I think that this game could come down to defense – and I’ll take Pittsburgh’s defence over Houston’s.

The Steelers’ 13 sacks lead the NFL, and I think they’ll get after Houston’s exciting young quarterback C.J. Stroud here.

Stroud does appear to be hitting his stride for the Texans with a two-touchdown performance in the win over the Jaguars, but this Pittsburgh defense is another test altogether. – JW

Rams (+1.5) @ Colts

Picks ATS:

Adam: Colts
Alan: Colts
Jonny: Rams
Neil: Rams

Money Line: Rams Evens & Colts 5/6

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Colts
Alan: Colts
Jonny: Rams
Neil: Rams

Comments: The Rams are 1-2 and yet, I still think they are one of the top ten teams (at worst) in the NFL. Cooper Kupp is still at least a week away from returning but they’ve found an absolute star in Puka Nacua at receiver and Tutu Atwell is just as good. They still have every chance of doing real damage come January.

For this weekend however, they are actually getting points on the road in Tennessee. So far Sean McVay’s men have beaten a good Seattle team at home before suffering tough one-score road losses in San Francisco and Cincinnati, where plenty of self-inflicted wounds kept them from pulling off the upset on the road. If they clean them up then they should be able to get the W. They are the better team, they just need to show it. – NM

Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Saints

Picks ATS:

Adam: Saints
Alan: Saints
Jonny: Saints
Neil: Buccaneers

Money Line: Buccaneers 6/4 & Saints 8/15

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Saints
Alan: Saints
Jonny: Saints
Neil: Buccaneers

Comments: I tipped up the Eagles to put 12 or more between themselves and the Bucs last week at a great price, and it never looked in doubt. Saints meanwhile can’t get their offense firing – Carr is wounded and Winston may have to deputise under centre.

Two sides for whom postseason will feel a long way away at present, but if one of them could go on a run of sorts for me it would be New Orleans. Ideal opportunity for Thomas and Hill to create some havoc at The Superdome – AF

Commanders (-8.5) @ Eagles

Picks ATS:

Adam: Eagles
Alan: Eagles
Jonny: Eagles
Neil: Eagles

Money Line: Eagles 1/4 & Commanders 3/1

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Eagles
Alan: Eagles
Jonny: Eagles
Neil: Eagles

Comments: When I first checked the lines on Tuesday afternoon, the Eagles were giving 9.5 and by the time I put this column together on Wednesday morning, it had shifted slightly in the favour of the Commanders. I don’t get it. I know Philadelphia only beat New England and Minnesota by a score but they are 3-0 and they haven’t fired on all cylinders yet.

Washington started the season 2-0, including a fabulous comeback at Mile High against the Broncos. Then they finally faced a good team and Buffalo blew the doors off them winning 37-3. Philadelphia are a good team and I expect a one-sided affair. The 8.5 doesn’t concern me. – NM

Bengals (-2.5) @ Titans

Picks ATS:

Adam: Bengals
Alan: Titans
Jonny: Bengals
Neil: Bengals

Money Line: Bengals 8/11 & Titans 23/20

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Bengals
Alan: Titans
Jonny: Bengals
Neil: Bengals

Comments: The Bengals finally got up-and-running on Monday night in a 19-16 victory over the Los Angeles Rams, and I’m expecting them to kick on now.

Cincinnati has beaten Tennessee in Nashville during each of the past two seasons, winning by a combined 7 points. However, the Titans did cover the spread the last time these two teams met at the Nissan Stadium.

Despite Joe Burrow essentially playing on one leg to open the season, Tennessee are struggling to score – averaging just 15 points per game this term.

Hard to back against Cincinnati in this one. – JW

Sunday – 21:05:

Raiders (+5.5) @ Chargers

Picks ATS:

Adam: Raiders
Alan: Chargers
Jonny: Raiders
Neil: Chargers

Money Line: Raiders 21/10 & Chargers 2/5

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Chargers
Alan: Chargers
Jonny: Chargers
Neil: Chargers

Comments: A couple of 1-2 outfits but the Chargers did me a great turn last week in edging the Vikings, and it will have done them the world of good. Cheered me up no end too.

The Vegas visitors to SoFi have as their solitary win so far a one-point humbling of Denver. Form students will not be wildly enamoured by that stark stat. Interesting to see another installment of the Garoppolo-at-QB show for the Raiders. Always divided opinion somewhat.

For LA, Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen will be just too darned dangerous I reckon – AF

Sunday – 21:25:

Patriots (+6.5) @ Cowboys

Picks ATS:

Adam: Patriots
Alan: Patriots
Jonny: Patriots
Neil: Cowboys

Money Line: Patriots 12/5 & Cowboys 1/3

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Cowboys
Alan: Patriots
Jonny: Cowboys
Neil: Cowboys

Comments: I tipped up the Patriots last week against the Jets and they didn’t disappoint, picking up their first win of the season on the road.

Now they’re facing a Dallas Cowboys outfit looking to bounce back from a defeat against the Cardinals – the type of match ‘America’s Team’ can’t afford to be losing given their Super Bowl aspirations.

This game also marks the return to Zeke Elliott to Dallas, and the RB ran for 80 yards on 16 carries against the Jets at MetLife, and he’ll likely have a point to prove here against his former team.

I fancy the Patriots to cover the spread, but Dallas should have enough firepower to edge this one on the money line. – JW

Cardinals (-14.5) @ 49ers

Picks ATS:

Adam: Cardinals
Alan: 49ers
Jonny: Cardinals
Neil: Cardinals

Money Line: Cardinals 11/2 & 49ers 1/8

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: 49ers
Alan: 49ers
Jonny: 49ers
Neil: 49ers

Comments: The biggest line of the young season so far as at the time of writing, Arizona are getting two touchdowns plus the hook. Considering the Cardinals have scored 28 points in back-to-back weeks, including against one of the best defenses in the league last Sunday, that is a big number.

I’m of the belief that San Francisco are the best team in the NFL. I’m not at all surprised to see that they are currently the 5/1 favourites to win the Super Bowl with us here at Betfred. They have a formidable defense, a good game-manager at QB, a Swiss Army-Knife of a RB and receivers who can do enough. I like them to win with ease but I’m not giving them such a big head start. Give me Arizona against the spread. – NM

Monday 01:20:

Chiefs (-9.5) @ Jets

Picks ATS:

Adam: Chiefs
Alan: Jets
Jonny: Chiefs
Neil: Chiefs

Money Line: Chiefs 2/9 & Jets 17/5

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Chiefs
Alan: Chiefs
Jonny: Chiefs
Neil: Chiefs

Comments: After a stilted start to their Super Bowl defence, the Kansas City Chiefs finally exploded into life, in the first half at Arrowhead.

Yes, it was only against the hapless Bears but Mahomes and his receivers finally looked in sync. Travis Kelce is back (with his new bae) and the rest of the crew seemed to lift their game as a result.

The run game looked great c/o Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who all picked up touchdowns and the defense continues to dominate, with Chris Jones and George Karlaftis dominating the line of scrimmage.

Meanwhile the Jets have fallen to back-to-back losses and the list of people asking for back-up QB Zach Wilson to be benched continues to grow.

Give me the Chiefs in a complete blow-out, this should be a double-digit spread. – AR

Tuesday 01:15:

Seahawks (+1.5) @ Giants

Picks ATS:

Adam: Seahawks
Alan: Seahawks
Jonny: Seahawks
Neil: Seahawks

Money Line: Seahawks Evens & Giants 5/6

Picks Straight Up:

Adam: Seahawks
Alan: Seahawks
Jonny: Seahawks
Neil: Seahawks

Comments: I could not believe it when I saw the line that Seattle were getting points for the Monday Night Football over in New York. With Saquon Barkley still not expected to play, it leaves the Giants attack as very one-dimensional. Am I willing to say that I think Daniel Jones can lead an offense to such a degree that they can defeat a pretty decent team, even at home? No, no I am not.

I’ve liked what I’ve seen from the Seahawks so far. Kenneth Walker III continues to look like a running back who can burst through tackles and take advantage of space on the edge. They have two outstanding receivers plus the emerging talents of Jaxon Smith-Njigba to call upon in the passing game and Geno Smith III continues to play well enough under Center. I like Seattle to roll on the road as a small underdog – NM

Season Records:

Against the Spread: