NBA Betting Tips: Boston to take commanding series

 | Wednesday 12th June 2024, 9:24am

Wednesday 12th June 2024, 9:24am

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The Dallas Mavericks are looking to avoid a third-straight defeat when they welcome the Boston Celtics to the American Airlines Center for game three of the NBA Finals.

My NBA betting tips for Wednesday focus on whether the Mavericks can respond on their home floor or if the Celtics take a commanding 3-0 series lead.

NBA Betting Tips - Wednesday, June 12

  • Boston Celtics to beat Dallas Mavericks @ 23/20
  • Over 212.5 points @ 10/11

Today's NBA Odds

The Dallas Mavericks are in dire need of a victory in game three, after suffering back-to-back defeats in the first two matches of the NBA Finals.

Boston are in the driver's seat based on league history, as 31 of 36 teams who held a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals went on to win it. It'll be interesting to see what the Celtics' approach is going into this pivotal third game, as they look to extend their perfect road record in the play-offs to 7-0.

Dallas are still yet to get going in my opinion, and Boston have done a fantastic job of containing their superstar duo of Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. The Mavs need a plan B, and we're yet to see one so far this series.

Boston Celtics to beat Dallas Mavericks @ 23/20

Normally, I would be inclined to believe that Dallas will bounce back at home but Boston have been ruthless on their travels so far this postseason.

The Mavs have failed to break the century mark in terms of points in the opening two encounters, but one common play-off trend is that role players shoot better at home, which ultimately will help Doncic and Irving. If you take away Doncic’s 8-of-21 from three-point range, the rest of the Mavericks squad is shooting just 15.6% (5-of-32).

Their inability to capitalise on three-point looks makes me hesitant to back the Mavericks here, who I think will be feeling the pressure to put in a big performance. As mentioned, the Celtics haven't lost on the road so far in the play-offs, and will know that win here moves them even closer to lifting their first title since 2008.

Celtics on ML at 23-20

Over 212.5 points @ 10/11

As mentioned above, Dallas failed to break 100 points in the first two games of this series.

However, I do believe that the result will be much closer on Wednesday night, and not another Boston blowout. I'm siding with the Celtics to win the game, but I don't think there'll be much in it.

The line has dropped from 215.5 in game two, suggesting the market is priced based on Dallas' offensive struggles so far, so I'm going to take the over here, as the Mavericks will surely shoot better at home.

Over 212.5 points at 10-11

You can read all our latest NBA Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights NBA content hub.

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