MLB Betting Tips: 2/1 about three leaders to beat basement boys

As ever, it’s a reduced calendar in Major League Baseball on Thursday, with 14 teams having a day off. But that still gives us eight games to get our teeth into, and four of them feature in our tips today.

There are three top-versus-bottom matchups, and it’s those which take our attention first in my MLB Betting Tips for Thursday.

Today’s MLB Odds

Tigers, Cubs & Astros Win Treble @ 2.02/1

The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the disappointments of the season, following up back-to-back play-off campaigns with a 27-39 start in 2025 which has seen 2023 Manager of the Year Brandon Hyde fired in favour of interim skipper Tony Mansolino.

They face the Detroit Tigers at Camden Yards (18:35 local, 23:35 BST) in the first of three first-against-worst clashes. Outside of the New York Mets, the Tigers have the best record in baseball, so there’s a clear favourite at Oriole Park.

Over in PA, the Chicago Cubs arrive at PNC Park as the clear leaders in the NL Central, five games ahead of the St Louis Cardinals.

Their hosts, the Pittsburgh Pirates, are 13.5 back at the foot of the standings, and – crucially – don’t have Paul Skenes on the mound tonight. Even with the Rookie of the Year pitching they have a 6-8 record (.429), but on his days off that drops to 22-33 (.400).

And there’s another 1v5 contest at Daikin Park, Houston as the hometown Astros put their 37-30 record up against the White Sox’s 23-45.

The ‘Stros send two-time All-Star and 2022 World Series winner Framber Valdez (6-4, 3.07) to the bump, opposing the Sox’s Davis Martin (2-6, 3.62). The Southsiders’ offence is currently the fourth-worst in baseball, making a Houston win an even greater likelihood.

All told, with the Tigers priced by Betfred at 8/15 on the money line, and the Cubs and Astros 4/9 and 4/11 respectively, there’s a 2.02/1 treble to be had on the three division-leaders coming out on top at an implied 33.1% probability.

Mets vs Nationals: Over 8.5 Total Runs @ 1/1

The Washington Nationals are another not-very-good baseball team. Their 30-37 record actually has them third in the NL East, which is respectable enough given how well the Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies are competing this year.

But the Nats are in the lower half of the MLB ranks for runs per game, have the second-worst bullpen ERA in the sport, and their pitching overall lands them 26th in the Majors.

Today they go up against the Mets at Citi Field (13:10 local, 18:10 BST) looking to avoid a sweep. But they have Michael Soroka (3-3, 4.86) on the mound up against the red-hot Kodai Senga (6-3, 1.59).

Tempted as I am to go all in on Soroka being chased reasonably early and the Nationals’ horrible bullpen getting a kicking, there’s little value in backing the Mets to score over 4.5 runs.

So I’m going for the 1/1 for over 8.5 runs total, with that also opening the door to the Nats grabbing something late even if their leakiness has already made the game safe for the Mets by that point.

You can read all our latest MLB Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.