MLB Betting Tips: Take the over on big runs for reeling Rockies

Monday night’s MLB slate will see the 14 teams in action pay tribute to a true legend of the sport on the fifth annual Lou Gehrig Day, 74 years on from the death of the legendary New York Yankees first baseman as a result of ALS.

All active players will wear a patch with Gehrig’s number four on their jerseys, with some compelling clashes set to take place in commemoration of the ‘Iron Horse’. Here are my MLB Betting Tips for Monday.

Today’s MLB Odds

Marlins v Rockies: Over 9.5 Total Runs @ 6/4

Two of the three poorest teams in the National League come together at loanDepot Park (18:40 local, 23:40 BST) as the Miami Marlins host a record-setting Colorado Rockies.

The Rockies have already suffered 50 losses this season in only 59 games, with their current form trending towards a 25-137 record over the course of the entire campaign, which would be the second-worst return in MLB history.

Tonight, German Marquez toes the rubber looking to build on two consecutive quality starts, but his ERA (7.13) and 1-7 win-loss record say much about his year as a whole so far.

The Marlins’ starter, Max Meyer, has been fairly consistent to this point but was knocked around by the San Diego Padres at Petco Park last time out, giving up seven hits and six runs (four earned) before being hooked with one out in the fourth.

All in all, I just don’t see these two starters laying a great platform, and with both teams harbouring bullpen ERAs of over 4.00 so far in 2025, runs should be available to the opposing offences.

That’s why I’m taking the over on the 9.5 total runs bracket at 6/4, implying a probability of 40%.

White Sox v Tigers: Handicap: Tigers -2.5 @ 13/10

Having already spoken about two poor teams, I’m reticent to linger too long on the Chicago White Sox ahead of them hosting the Detroit Tigers at Guaranteed Rate Field (18:40 local, 00:40 Tuesday BST).

So let’s start with the positive outlook. The 39-21 Tigers are the best team in baseball, a full 1.5 games up on the next most impressive record (Cubs and Mets both on 37-22).

With Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene slugging to great effect, and Javier Baez starting to look a bit more like his dazzling old self as displayed between 2016 and 2018 in Chicago, Detroit have been the surprise outfit of the year thus far.

They send 2024 World Series winner Jack Flaherty (3-6, 3.94 ERA) to the mound against the Sox’s Jonathan Cannon (2-6, 4.15).

Cannon tends to allow plenty of traffic, and that could open the way for the Tigers’ power bats to cause trouble.

Tie that in with the home bullpen’s tendency to give up runs, with a 4.43 ERA compared to Detroit’s 3.24, and the Southsiders will do well to win more than one of this four-game set.

I fancy the Tigers to get this series off to a flying start with a win by at least three runs at 13/10, which implies a 43.5% chance.

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