MLB Betting Tips: 18/1 tip for Wednesday’s Wild Card match-ups

There are four teams looking to upset the odds of modern MLB postseason history on Wednesday as the Wild Card round reaches Game 2 (live coverage across TNT Sports channels from 22:00 BST).

In 16 previous Wild Card series, 14 winners of Game 1 have gone on to take the series and 13 of those have swept. That stat will sway my Daily MLB Tips.

Today’s MLB Odds

AL Wildcard Game 2: Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros Odds (19:32 BST)

It was an upset of sorts on Tuesday when the Tigers went in to Minute Maid Park and came away with a 3-1 victory off the back of a stellar start from Tarik Skubal (six scoreless innings, four hits, one walk, six strikeouts).

The Astros are 8/15 to bounce back and win Game 2 behind Hunter Brown, who has a career postseason ERA of just 1.69.

Tyler Holton will open for the Tigers but he is unlikely to go more than a couple of innings before handing over the ball. Detroit are 6/4 with Betfred to complete a sweep.

AL Wildcard Game 2: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles Odds (21:38 BST)

The Royals are 13/10 to follow up their 1-0 Game 1 win at Camden Yards with another victory behind the experienced Seth Lugo. The Orioles hand the ball to Zach Eflin and are an 8/13 shot to tie the series, implying a 61.9% chance that they send it to a decider on Thursday.

NL Wildcard Game 2: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers Odds (00:38 BST Thursday)

Sean Manaea goes to the mound for the Mets hoping to cap a whirlwind few days with a series victory. New York are 10/11 with Betfred to win Game 2, but so are the Brewers as the bookies find it impossible to split the pair after the Met’s 8-4 win on Tuesday.

Frankie Montas is the starting pitcher for Pat Murphy’s men in the first of two potential elimination games.

NL Wildcard Game 2: Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres Odds (01:38 BST Thursday)

The Padres have the luxury of sending out Joe Musgrove to attempt to clinch the series, and Betfred have them 4/5 to book a Division Series clash with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday.

Atlanta have the task of overhauling that 1-0 deficit having seen their bats go quiet in Game 1 (as we predicted) and are 1/1 to take the match-up to a decider. The dependable Max Field is on the hill for the Braves.

All Game 1 winners to sweep @ 18/1

Those stats we opened the piece with are likely to weigh heavy tonight. So often already in the three previous seasons featuring Wild Card series, we have watched teams on the verge of a quick elimination having little to say for themselves in Game 2.

The fact that 13 of the 16 previous examples have finished in 2-0 sweeps undermines the concept somewhat, while the appearance of two Wild Card teams – the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers – in the World Series in 2023 showed that momentum is a very real weapon in the postseason.

So after victories in Game 1, I think it’s worth backing the Tigers, Royals, Mets and Padres all to come out on top again on Wednesday.

It’s an 18.75/1 chance, which – given the trend of recent years – is not to be sniffed at.

First 5 innings double: Royals & under 4.5 total runs @ 19/5

“I’ll just watch the first few innings of the Royals-Orioles game before bed,” I thought to myself on Tuesday night. Before I knew it, it was the seventh-inning stretch.

The blink-and-you’ll-miss-it nature of the pitching duel between Corbin Burnes and Cole Ragans meant that the bats never had a chance to warm up.

And I think it could be the same again early on in the proceedings at Camden Yards on Wednesday. With Eflin and Lugo both of great quality, I think they could have the offenses locked down in the opening innings.

I really like the look of the under 4.5 market in the first five innings, and if I am to side with either team to lead after five it is the Royals given the ability they showed to eke out scoring opportunities in Game 1.

The Royals-under 4.5 double after five is a 19/5 shot, with a 20.8% implied probability.

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