MLB Betting Tips: 12/5 about Orioles to win tight Game 1

The MLB postseason begins on Tuesday with the baseball world still catching its breath after the New York Mets landed a wildcard place in an instant classic against the Atlanta Braves on Monday (live coverage on TNT Sports 4 from 19:30 BST).

The Braves also made it thanks to their 3-0 win in game two of the season-ending double-header, but their need to go hard right down to the wire will inform my MLB Betting Tips.

Today’s MLB Odds

AL Wildcard Game 1: Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros Odds (19:32 BST)

The AL West-champion Astros are 4/6 to win Game 1 against a Tigers side which came from nowhere to reach the postseason, winning 31 of 42 games from August 11 to September 27 to clinch a Wildcard spot.

The Tigers can be backed at 6/5 to win the opener at Minute Maid Park, implying a 45.5% probability.

AL Wildcard Game 1: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles Odds (21:08 BST)

The Orioles were 10 games worse off in 2024 compared to their phenomenal ’23 campaign, but their 91-71 record was more than enough to clinch a home Wildcard series. They are 8/13 to get off to a flying start on Tuesday with victory over the Royals, who are 13/10 to take Game 1.

NL Wildcard Game 1: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers Odds (22:32 BST)

The Mets will need to overcome the emotions of that thrilling win over the Braves on Monday to take a series lead in Milwaukee, but at least they could shuffle their pack a little in Game 162 ahead of flying to Wisconsin.

The Brewers, winners of the NL Central by 10 games, are favoured to the tune of 8/11 by Betfred, while the Mets can be backed at 11/10 to continue the momentum gained in that 8-7 double-comeback classic.

NL Wildcard Game 1: Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres Odds (01:38 BST Wednesday)

Can Brian Snitker’s Braves overcome the consequences of that emotionally and physically draining double-header, as well as the likely loss of Chris Sale for the Wildcard series?

They’re 13/10 to take Game 1, with the Padres the 8/13 favourites (implying a 61.9% chance) having finished second to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.

Orioles to win and under 6.5 total runs @ 12/5

When Baltimore hosts the beginning of the American League Wildcard Series between the Orioles and the Royals, there is a monkey to be dusted from the back of the home team.

Brandon Hyde’s troops finished with the best record in the AL last season but were bundled out of the postseason immediately, the victims of a 3-0 sweep by the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers in the Division Series.

Here, they need to show their play-off mettle, but I see this being a tight affair with fingernails bitten to the quick.

All of the Orioles’ last 13 games have featured more than 6.5 total runs, but the Royals have been involved in a string of nerve-shredding pitchers’ duels of late.

Nine of their final 11 fixtures in the regular season came in at six runs or fewer, with seven of them containing no more than three. And I can see that trend continuing in a high-pressure environment at Camden Yards on Tuesday.

It’s Corbin Burnes who takes the mound for the Orioles, and his career postseason ERA of 2.84 shows that he has fought his corner well in low-scoring encounters in the past for the Brewers, from whom he joined the O’s ahead of the 2024 season. He also posted a great record for Baltimore this year (15-9, 2.92 ERA).

He's up against Cole Ragans, who goes to battle in the postseason for the first time in his career but is coming off the back of a stellar season (11-9, 3.14 ERA).

I think postseason experience tells here, but not by much, and the 12/5 on offer from Betfred (at an implied probability of 29.4%) for this one to end in the Orioles’ favour and feature under 6.5 runs is well worth a look.

Braves under 2.5 runs @ 6/5

Forgive me for labouring the point about Monday’s season-ending double-header, but the Braves have to be just about spent after their exertions.

Hurricane Helene forced them to wait until after the end of the allotted schedule to play Games 161 and 162 against the Mets, then the Braves twice thought they had the win in the bag at the first time of asking.

After losing a heartbreaker, they then got over the line going full pelt against a New York side who knew their fate already. And if that wasn’t enough, there was the cross-country flight to San Diego which followed immediately afterwards, landing at the equivalent of 02:24 EDT after the four-hour, 15-minute journey.

So it will take all their reserves to hang in there on Tuesday night against a Padres side who had the slight edge over them in the regular season, winning four of the seven-game set.

Michael King goes to the mound for the Padres after compiling a 2.95 ERA in 2024, with the Braves scrambling around for answers after the news that Chris Sale is suffering from back spasms. Brian Snitker will make a late call on their starter.

I just don’t see the Braves being at 100% for Game 1, meaning the 6/5 for them to fail to bag three or more runs is right up my alley.

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