MLB Betting Tips: Chicago hope leads to Thursday’s picks

Thursday’s getaway day in Major League Baseball serves up an intriguing batch of games after a night when four of six division leaders lost and the entire AL West drew a blank.

We also have an extra game to choose our predictions from after the Royals-Cardinals postponement in St Louis last night. Here are my MLB Betting Tips for Thursday.

Today’s MLB Odds

White Sox vs Tigers: First 5 innings draw no bet: White Sox @ 13/8

After a few days off the bandwagon, I’m back to picking out the struggling Chicago White Sox… but not how you might think. They go up against Casey Mize on Thursday (13:10 local, 19:10 BST at Guaranteed Rate Field) at a time when the Detroit Tigers righty is exhibiting the best pitching form of his career so far.

The Sox are aiming for a series split having picked up game two on Tuesday, and with Sean Burke on the bump for them there is some hope for a home victory.

Making only the 14th start of his career, Burke will be looking to continue a run of improved form which has seen him allow just three runs over 12 innings in consecutive quality starts.

He’s also 2-2 with a 2.73 ERA since the beginning of May, with only one poor outing in that time (4.2 IP, 6 R, 5 ER against the Cubs on May 17). Following a poor April, Burke is really finding his feet.

And that gives me the confidence to back the White Sox to at least start well. Mize is due to return to the mean at some point, and I think the Sox might tag him for a couple of early runs.

The 13/8 about the Southsiders being on top after five frames looks particularly appealing, as that should rule out the variables that the opposing bullpens can throw up.

The 38.1% implied probability doesn’t really match what Burke has been delivering, so I’m happy to take that on.

Nationals vs Cubs: Winning Margin 4-way – Cubs by 3+ @ 17/10

Never bet on your own team, they say. Well, consider this rule number one being broken when the Chicago Cubs face off with the Washington Nationals (18:45 local, 23:45 BST at Nationals Park).

The Cubs were beaten in a pitchers’ duel on Wednesday as Mackenzie Gore just about got over the top of Matt Boyd, who was perfect over the first 5.1 innings.

But I think the Northsiders bounce back on Thursday as they send out Drew Pomeranz to do another opening job for Ben Brown.

Brown’s 9.90 first-inning ERA, compared to 0.82 in both the second and third frames, led to Craig Counsell throwing Pomeranz in the mix against the Reds last Saturday.

That worked a treat, with the still-unblemished Pomeranz (2-0, 0.00 ERA in 13.2 IP) taking nine pitches to record a 1-2-3 opening inning before Brown stepped in to throw six scoreless sets with just one hit and nine strikeouts.

I can see more of the same in the nation’s capital up against Jake Irvin, with the Cubs being the best team in MLB for runs-per-game.

Sure, Gore got them on Wednesday, but that kind of display rarely happens twice in succession and there could well by a return for Kyle Tucker in the Cubbies’ line-up.

The big bats ought to do the business much as they did in the 8-3 road win on Tuesday, and that 17/10 price at an implied 37% chance looks tasty.

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