MLB Betting Tips: Runs on the menu in Milwaukee-Mets shootout

After three of the four MLB Wild Card series were won in sweeps on Wednesday, it is left to the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets to battle it out for the final Division Series spot on Thursday (live on TNT Sports 1 from 00:00 BST).

This is only the fourth of 20 Wild Card series to make it to a decider, and both managers will be treating it as though there is no tomorrow. Here are my Daily MLB Tips for the clash at American Family Field.

Today’s MLB Odds

NL Wildcard Game 3: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers Odds (00:08 BST Friday)

The Brewers are the very slight favourites to get over the line and book a Division Series berth against the Philadelphia Phillies. The hometown side are 4/5, with the Mets 1/1 to win.

Surrendering a 1.5-run handicap, the Brewers are 13/8, an implied probability of 38.1% of Pat Murphy’s team winning by two runs or more.

• Both teams to score 3 or more @ 13/10

Having spent the past couple of nights watching the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles score a total of four runs between them, I can promise you that cagey postseason baseball is a very real thing.

But in Milwaukee we have seen something very different. Offences have ruled in this series, with the dam broken early in both games thus far.

With pitchers living on the edge, I think there will be plenty of runs in this, making the market for three or more runs on both sides of the ledger a very promising bet.

At 13/10, and an implied probability of 43.5%, I reckon there’s too much quality in these two teams’ batting lineups for it not to come in.

1st 5 Winner/Runs Total Double: Brewers & Over 4.5 @ 16/5

I just missed out on a 19/5 tip in this field on Wednesday. In fact, only the Brewers’ eighth-inning comeback foiled me on an 18/1 shot as well.

But enough of my near-misses.

As I have stated, I can see this one containing runs, and I just get a feeling that the Brewers can get to Jose Quintana early. The former Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, St Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Angels hurler goes to the mound for only the second time in seven years of postseason baseball.

And Quintana, while steady and reliable for most of his regular-season career, just gives the air of somebody who could unravel at any moment in pressure spots.

The Mets have played a lot of baseball this week, with Monday’s season-ending double-header against the Atlanta Braves complicating the build-up to this series. As a result, Carlos Mendoza may be tempted at any crunch point to just give Quintana one more batter to fix things, and that could be their failing.

I think the Brewers win this, I have them down to do some of the biggest damage early on, and I reckon they get a lead that the Mets have a tough time dragging back. The 16/5 price helps, too.

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