MLB Betting Tips: Rivalries abound as Ohtani comes to the plate

As ever, there’s no rest for the wicked in Major League Baseball, and on Monday we have nine games to keep across as new series get underway after a great weekend of action.

Let’s have a look at an interleague battle in Ohio and an NL West rivalry matchup over in California. Here are my MLB Betting Tips for Monday.

Today’s MLB Odds

Guardians vs Reds: 1st 5 Innings – Guardians -1 @ 6/4

Many baseball fans might have thought we’d seen the last of Wade Miley at the big-league level when he signed a Minor League deal with the Cincinnati Reds in February after a lack of real interest in him during free agency.

But he was called up by the Reds last week to make his club debut against his former Milwaukee Brewers teammates, coming in for the top of the eighth inning and giving up six hits and four runs in a six-out showing which capped off a 9-1 humbling for the Reds.

On Monday night at Progressive Field (18:40 local, 23:40 BST), he makes his first start of the season against the Cleveland Guardians’ Luis Ortiz.

The home starter is coming off a couple of great outings against the Yankees and Angels, combining for 11.2 innings with 10 hits and one earned run allowed, striking out 12.

After a poor first couple of appearances this season, Ortiz has rallied to post a 3.16 ERA in his last 10 starts. And it is exactly that sort of form which I think can get the Guardians on top early against a guy in Miley who is just getting his foot back in the door at this point.

Even if it is a short outing for Miley, there simply shouldn’t be the sort of momentum in the Reds’ pitching staff that Ortiz has been able to generate of late.

That’s why the 6/4 about a Guards lead of at least two by the end of the fifth inning looks good to me at an implied probability of 40%.

Padres vs Dodgers: Over 9.5 Runs @ 6/4

It’s a question of the hitters on show versus the relative strength of the two starting pitchers for this one. The San Diego Padres welcome the division-rival Los Angeles Dodgers to Petco Park (18:40, 02:40 BST) with runs set to be on the menu.

Nick Pivetta has been superb for the Padres this season (6-2, 3.16 ERA) but was less convincing last time out as he gave up five ‘Ernies’ in six innings against the Giants.

Pivetta also has a bit of a poor record against the Dodgers’ batters, with Shohei Ohtani and Michael Conforto both having smashed multiple homers off him in the past.

He goes up against the Dodgers’ Dustin May, who is one hell of a pitcher but is not lights-out by any stretch of the imagination.

May brings with him a 3-4 record with a 4.09 ERA, with indifferent starts more regular than quality ones.

So I’m backing both starters to have their difficulties and the bullpens to suffer against the likes of Ohtani, Manny Machado, Freddie Freeman and Fernando Tatis Jr.

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