MLB Betting Tips: Handicap markets offer value behind Skenes and Senga

There’s a rare full Monday of Major League Baseball action this week as all 30 teams regain the momentum of the season following the All-Star break.

And my MLB Betting Tips for Monday will take into account the All-Star quality of two starting pitchers, including a starter from last week’s contest in Atlanta.

Today’s MLB Odds

Pirates vs Tigers – First 7 Innings Handicap: Pirates -0.5 @ 21/20

Paul Skenes’ elevation to national superstardom knows no bounds, with a second straight start in the All-Star game showing the position he holds in the baseball psyche right now.

Having posted a 1.96 ERA last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates ace is around that mark again in 2025 with an average of 2.01 heading into his Monday start against the Detroit Tigers at PNC Park (18:40 local, 23:40 BST).

The difference 12 months on from his rookie year is that the Bucs are not backing him up. Whereas in ’24 he posted a win-loss record of 11-3, he’s currently on 4-8 as the Pirates’ bats repeatedly go cold in what appears to be a nailed-on fifth-placed season.

So if we’re backing Skenes, we have to do so in the truncated game markets just in case that pitch count results in the number 30’s work being undone later in the piece.

I’d be willing to back the five-inning bracket at -1 against the Pirates if I had any kind of confidence in their offence. But in truth, I just don’t, so it’s the seven-inning shout of any Bucs lead at 21/20 that seems the wiser option today at an implied probability of 48.8%.

Mets vs Angels: First 5 Innings Handicap: Mets -1 @ 7/5

Kodai Senga was a non-playing National League All-Star back in 2023, and after a season decimated by a shoulder injury in ’24 he has been back to his very best for the New York Mets for most of the current campaign.

Only a recent hamstring injury has checked his stride, but he’s back in shape now and threw four scoreless innings on his return against the Kansas City Royals 10 days ago.

On Monday he comes up against the Los Angeles Angels and Tyler Anderson at Citi Field (19:10 local, 00:10 BST). And there’s just no comparing the two starters given that Senga has allowed just 12 earned runs in 2025 whereas Anderson has conceded the same number in his last four starts alone.

That’s come over a period for the Angels lefty in which he’s actually steadied the ship too, having given up 24 runs in the six preceding starts, so the Halos’ bats are going to have to go some against the brilliant Senga if they are to get on top of the Mets.

And that seems highly unlikely, with Senga posting a 1.39 ERA over 77.2 innings this year, striking out 74.

The Angels might have Mike Trout, but they’ve had him for a decade and a half to no material benefit in the way of postseason success.

That inconsistency comes exactly from matchups like this one, and I’m well behind the Mets having a lead of at least two runs by the end of five innings. The 7/5 price implies a 41.7% probability.

You can read all our latest MLB Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.