MLB Betting Tips: Go west to find value to add to 6-for-7 week

It’s been a big week for followers of this column, with six of seven tips coming in, so Friday’s challenge is to keep the ball rolling and we’re looking at one game in each league to come through for us.

And it’s out west where the value should be, with a division-rival match-up in the AL while the big apple is represented on the far coast in the NL. Here are my MLB Betting Tips for Friday.

Today’s MLB Odds

Rockies vs Mets: Mets -3.5 @ 11/10

This one barely needs any explanation, even if the Colorado Rockies have just completed their first series sweep in 13 months.

Those three wins over the Marlins were a much-needed boost to the Rox, but in truth they are going to have things much harder when they host the New York Mets this weekend at Coors Field. The three-game set starts on Friday night (18:40 local, 01:40 BST).

With Kodai Senga (6-3, 1.60 ERA) going up against Antonio Senzatela (1-10, 7.14 ERA) there should be no real competition here.

Obviously, baseball doesn’t always work like that, and even the worst teams will normally win 60 games a season (though the Rockies would snap your hand off for that right now). However, this should just be a case of how many the Mets win by.

The visitors bring with them the 10th-best offence in the majors, while the 29th-ranked Rockies bats have yielded just 3.16 runs per game this year.

So long as Senga doesn’t have his first real off-night since a five-inning, eight-hit, five-run outing against the Reds back in May 2023, the Mets should have this one in the bag with plenty of runs to spare.

Angels vs Mariners: Over 10.5 Total Runs @ 13/10

When the Los Angeles Angels welcome the Seattle Mariners to Anaheim tonight (18:38 local, 02:38 BST) both sides will be looking for their starting pitchers to find the kind of form that has deserted them of late.

Kyle Hendricks goes to the bump for the Halos having struggled to find a real footing since heading to his native west coast following more than a decade with the Chicago Cubs.

Following two decent starts which totalled 11 innings and just two earned runs allowed, Hendricks has returned to something like the form he exhibited in early 2024 which persuaded the Chicago front office to move on from the 2016 World Series Game 7 starter.

He has turned in a 6.19 ERA in his last nine starts for a 2-6 record, with just one outing of true quality coming in that period when he beat the Detroit Tigers with a 7.2-inning, one-run showing.

The 35-year-old goes up against Bryce Miller, who has also found it difficult in recent times either side of an IL stint for right-shoulder inflammation. He turned in a 9.69 ERA in three starts in May, returning to the rotation with a four-inning, three-run evening against the Minnesota Twins last Friday.

While both starters have the quality to buck recent trends, the value has to be in backing two offences of decent standing to make hay.

The 13/10 price for 11 or more runs to be scored in total implies a 43.5% probability, which I believe to be on the skinny side.

You can read all our latest MLB Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.