Chiefs vs Bills Predictions: Mahomes to beat Allen once more

Mahomes vs Allen has all the makings of being the next Manning vs Brady but so far this year, neither QB has been performing at the top of their game.

They meet in the late window game on Sky Sports this Sunday and @NFLGirlUK previews the encounter and we pick out a couple of bets for you to consider...

The AFC is going to have a heated battle on their hands between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend. For Buffalo, this is practically their season that’s on the line here.

Another loss could prove that they don’t belong in the playoffs, while also putting them further behind in the Wild Card race anyways. Meanwhile, the Chiefs could get right back up there for contention of the number one seed in the AFC. There's no question that this game will be one of the best of the week, so let’s dive right in.

Buffalo desperately needs this. They got a week off after losing in heart-breaking fashion to the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime in Week 12. The week off should help them readjust down the stretch, but it doesn’t make their next game any easier. They are sitting at 6-6 on the season and behind in the playoff hunt.

The reason I believe that this is a make-or-break game for them is because if they lose, they fall to 6-7 with a very tough game coming in the following week against the Dallas Cowboys. A loss there puts them at 6-8.

Buffalo wants to prove that they can compete for a Super Bowl, something they’ve been attempting to do for a few years now. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are great, yet the offense is just missing something while turning the ball over far too many times. Not to mention that their defense is lacking strength overall, with smaller linebackers than other teams. This allows them to be beaten up against the run and hurts them at the end of close contests. I’m pulling for Buffalo to stay alive, but let’s face it, they need this one badly.

As for the Chiefs, this is an interesting place for them to be in. This is a team that has consistently relied upon the excellence of Patrick Mahomes to get the job done. However, that’s changed in 2023. Mahomes doesn’t have the weapons necessary to make consistent plays outside of Travis Kelce, and it’s became a real problem.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarious Toney, and Skyy Moore simply aren’t getting it done, and they won’t get it done. Mahomes has to be incredible to make this offense score consistently.

Currently, the only way that this Chiefs team has been able to win games is because of their stifling defense, and even then, they’ve suffered injuries at the most important positions over there. Kansas City has gotten the better of Buffalo in the last few meetings, and this is a matchup that they’ve been known to excel in. It’ll be a test for them as well.

Overall, I like the Chiefs to win this game. Despite the fact that the Bills need this one more, they seem all out of sorts. We just heard that head coach Sean McDermott once used the tragedy of 9/11 to motivate his team in a meeting, while star pass rusher Von Miller got into trouble over domestic violence issues off the field.

It just always feels like it’s something in Buffalo, and Mahomes has been consistently better than Allen in these head-to-head meetings. Except for that one overtime playoff game, and even then Mahomes still won at the end of the day.

Match Odds:

How often in recent years have we seen KC less than a three-point favourite at home? Not many but punters are really unsure what to make of the 2023 iteration of the Chiefs. Despite being 8-4, still being very much in the thick of it for a first-round bye and the first overall seed in the AFC, it has been a strange year.

The market has them as just a 1.5pt favourite on the handicap, meaning that on a neutral field, Buffalo would be favoured. The Money Line has KC at 4/5 with Buffalo just a hair over Even-money at 21/20.

The Total Points line though is one of the highest of the weekend at 48.5, meaning offense should be on top.

Bet 1 - Back KC-1.5 on the Handicap market @ 20/21

It has been a turbulant week in Buffalo (when isn't it?) but the heat is very much on both teams. The Mahomes-Allen matchup has all the making of being the modern day Manning-Brady but the offense in upstate New York has coughed and spluttered so far in 2023 and we've all seen the issues the Chiefs have had at receiver.

Andy Reid is still one of the most imaginative offensive minds in the game and in big games, you know he'll have a few plays at the back of the playbook ready to bust out at the opportune time.

I do like the home side to find a way to get the job done and with such a small handicap, I'll take the extra price rather than play the Money Line.

Bet 2 - Back Josh Allen over 49.5 Rushing Yards @ 2/1

The second bet comes from the #PickYourPunt market where I'm taking the Buffalo Bills QB to rush for over 49.5 yards at a decent looking 2/1 price. The mobile QB hasn't been using his legs much so far this season but with Matt Canada ousted as OC, Joe Brady has come in and last week we saw Allen rumble for a season-high 81 yards on nine carries.

With the Chiefs D expected to be swarming up front, this will mean that he'll at times be under immense pressure but if he can get out of the pocket, that should allow for a few wide open rushing lanes to open up.

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