Browns vs Steelers Predictions: Pittsburgh to befuddle rookie DTR to earn win

The opening game of the Sky Sports Live Double Header this Sunday is a big AFC North matchup with two 6-3 teams looking to keep up a somewhat surprising run towards the playoffs.

@NFLGirlUK is in situ and has her thoughts and preview ready for you along with a couple of betting selections for the game...

This matchup went off the rails very fast when the Pittsburgh Steelers took on the Cleveland Browns back in Week 2. Nick Chubb suffered a season ending injury, the Steelers defenses scored more points than their offense, and Pittsburgh shut out the Browns in the fourth quarter due to some turnovers for Cleveland. Safe to say that the sequel to that matchup could be just as entertaining, though it will look different.

The most important thing to note for the Steelers is that they’ve been outgained in every single game they’ve played in 2023. That’s a real statistic, they are constantly getting outgained in the yardage total, though they’re 6-3 somehow.

Kenny Pickett isn’t playing great football, but it’s consistently doing just enough to help them win football games. One thing that could open this offense up though is the emergence of the ground attack.

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both ran wild in their victory against the Green Bay Packers. If they keep that up, Pickett's job gets a whole lot easier down the stretch of the season. However, it’s hard to see them winning if they rely upon the defense to outscore the offense for a second time this season. Especially after Pittsburgh loses two key linebackers in Cole Holcomb and Kwon Alexander.

On the other hand, the Browns just found out that quarterback Deshaun Watson will miss the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury. This devastating blow now leaves the team in the hands of either PJ Walker or the rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

From the news we’ve heard recently, Thompson-Robinson will be starting under center against the Steelers this weekend instead of Walker, which feels odd considering how steady Walker was earlier in the year.

Still though, it’s going to be interesting seeing a new rookie take over the offense after a horrid first career start against another divisional rival, the Baltimore Ravens. Luckily, he has arguably the best defense in the league backing him up on the other side to give him an opportunity here.

At the end of the day, I believe that this is a game that the Steelers will win despite playing on the road. It’s always an intense battle between these squads, yet Pittsburgh usually winds up on top. Not just that, but their defense is incredibly stout and going against a rookie quarterback that was torn apart against Baltimore in his first career start.

Granted, he didn’t practice much that week while he gets a full week this time around, but that might not matter much. Kenny Pickett just has to play his own game and put up at least a few points on the board to give the defense some leeway. If he’s able to avoid falling into bad turnovers, the Steelers should get on top early and keep it that way. The last thing that the Browns need is to fall behind in this game early because it’s hard to see DTR forging a comeback against this talented defense.

Match Odds:

Considering the news that Deshaun Watson is out with a shoulder injury, it is somewhat perplexing to see that the Browns are looking like they'll open as small betting favourites in this one. Cleveland are 5/6 straight up with Pittsburgh priced-up at Evens.

The spread is pretty close and no doubt the Watson news has seen the line shift. The home side were 4.5pt favourites on Wednesday morning but despite losing their starting QB, the money is still just about on the side of the Browns.

Seeing the Over/Under line set at 32.5 says everything about what the traders and punters think about this game. Don't expect too many fantasy points from your skill guys on either roster.

Bet 1 - Pittsburgh Steelers to win @ Evens

I like Kenny Pickett and Co. to go on the road in this big AFC North matchup and get the job done. Being a rookie QB is a tough gig and it isn't as though DTR was a top-pick coming out of UCLA in the draft. This is a very tough assignment for the 24-year-old and he'll need plenty of help to get over the line. I just think Pittsburgh will do plenty of the defensive side and enough on offense to get a big away win and go to 7-3.

Bet 2 - Dorian Thompson-Robinson to score a TD anytime @ 9/2

Whilst I think it will be a tough day for DTR against the Steelers D, he is a big price to score a rushing TD on Sunday. The former UCLA Bruin scampered into the end zone no fewer than 28 times in his college career, including 12 in 13 games as a Senior. The NFL is a different level but his legs are for real and that 9/2 price stands out like a sore thumb as a value play.

You can read all of the NFL Betting Tips from the team at Betfred Insights on our NFL hub page...