Bills vs Chiefs Prediction: Back Josh Allen to lead his troops past Mahomes & Co

 | January 19 | 

5 mins read

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The game of the week is clearly the fourth and final one on the docket as Kansas City travel up to New York to take on the Buffalo Bills.

@NFLGirlUK takes you through the match-up and we've picked out a couple of bets to consider heading into this one...

Bills vs Chiefs Betting Tips:

  • Back Josh Allen to score anytime @ 4/5
  • Back Buffalo-4.5 on the Alternative Handicap @ 7/5

Not only is this a rematch between two talented teams who faced off earlier in the regular season, this is a rematch between two teams that have met in the postseason before.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the reigning champs and have consistently risen above adversity. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills turned their season back around and are here to prove that they can win a championship with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs.

The Chiefs might have been able to beat the Bills in the playoffs before by scoring a field goal in 13 seconds before winning in overtime. However, this isn’t that same team at all. The Chiefs have a severe lack of talent when it comes to their pass catchers. Travis Kelce obviously led the way but even he didn’t break 1,000 yards this year.

Rashee Rice was pretty much the best weapon in the receivers' room, and he’s only a rookie. Outside of those two, they have Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Noah Gray, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney. This is a group that doesn’t put fear into any defense.

The Bills are going to lock up Kelce and Rice and force those guys to make plays. It’ll be up to them to make it happen. Patrick Mahomes is known to step his game up in the postseason though, so he’ll be throwing them open when he can. They’ll have some time to figure it out with their defense playing incredible football in the past few months.

Will that defense be enough to handle the Bills? Buffalo started the year with a 5-5 record, and everybody thought they were just done. Instead, they ended the year with an 11-6 record and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers by double-digits in the Wild Card Round.

During that hot streak at the end of the season, Buffalo beat the Kansas City Chiefs on the road, the Dallas Cowboys at home, the Los Angeles Chargers on the road, and the Miami Dolphins on the road. There are a few reasons for that, and they’re both on the offensive side. Quarterback Josh Allen threw for 4,306 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. And yet, that’s not all. Allen rushed for 524 yards and 15 additional touchdowns on the ground.

There hasn’t been any containing him down the stretch of the year, and it’s opened the door for a James Cook breakout season. Cook ran for 1,122 yards himself to really make this offense difficult to slow down.

This is going to be a game that everybody believes Mahomes, and the Chiefs will win. Why? Well, it’s because the Chiefs have historically gotten the better of Allen and Buffalo in this recent rivalry. This one feels different though.

For the first time, Buffalo has home-field advantage over the Chiefs, so they’ll have their own fans cheering them on. On top of that, the Chiefs are operating with the worst pass catchers they’ve had in the last few years, something that Buffalo can exploit.

If the previous regular season game was any indication, it’s that Buffalo can win this match-up head-to-head, even on the road. I really like what they’ve done lately, and home field advantage for them seems like something that puts them over the top.

Bills vs Chiefs Odds:

We finally get to the game where the markets genuinely cannot decide which team should be favoured. Buffalo get the nod but only by 2.5pts, indicating that on a neutral field, this would be a pick 'em game. The Bills are available to back at 4/6 on the Money Line with the Chiefs coming in at 5/4.

The Total Points line is surprisingly in the middle-of-the-pack at just 44.5pts with Josh Allen the only player shorter than Even-money to score anytime at 4/5.

Bet 1 - Josh Allen to score anytime @ 4/5

This is an obvious pick but one that just has to be made. Only once in his past seven games has the QB not rushed for a TD. Against Pittsburgh last week, he scampered home from 52 yards out and no-one got near him. He's strong and strong but also had good top-line speed. He'll call his own number in key moments and it would be a surprise should he not score again on Sunday night.

Bet 2 - Buffalo-4.5 on the Alternative Line Handicap @ 7/5

Kansas City have been (and still are) one of the finest teams in the National Football League but Buffalo have just been playing at another level since Joe Brady took over play-calling duties.

The Bills are ready to finally get past KC in the postseason and I think they do so with a little bit of a cushion, hence why I'm happy to give-away two extra points on the handicap to get the better price.

Remember to check out our NFL Betting Tips index page where we preview games live on Sky Sports along with a weekly Predictions column...

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