UFC Fight Night Predictions: ‘Overkill’ is far from over the Hill

Angela Hill takes on Tabatha Ricci this Saturday, August 24 at UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs Borralho. The strawweight clash will serve as the co-main event on the card, which emanates from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The show will be screened live on TNT Sports 1.

Here are my Hill vs Ricci predictions ahead of this fascinating fight.

‘Overkill’ might be her moniker, but UFC fans certainly don’t feel like they’ve seen too much of Hill. The 30-fight veteran is almost always in thrilling fights and has earned her place in the promotion time and time again. 

The 39-year-old has landed more significant strikes than any woman in UFC history and is third on the all-time list regardless of gender. Hill has the most fights, wins and highest time spent in the cage in UFC Women’s Strawweight history. A testament to her fighting spirit and the fact she never ducks a fight, she also has the most divisional losses.

Perhaps most tellingly when coming to understand the career of Hill is the fact she is joint-top of the all-time list for most split decision losses, with four. She is a fighter who does not always get the rub of the green and many fans peg her as the company’s “most robbed” competitor.

Contrast that with the reputation of her opponent. There are those out there in the MMA blogosphere who feel Ricci has been lucky on the scorecards in the past. There were fervent discussions in fan communities following her win over Tecia Pennington back in May. 

UFC judges’ predilection towards Ricci’s style, combined with the same leeway not being given to Hill, has led some to deem this match predictable. Consensus seems to be that if this one is settled by the judges, ‘Baby Shark’ will do it. I don’t think it is that simply, particularly since Ricci lost to Loopy Godinez by split decision two fights ago. Surely if all she had to do was turn up, Ricci would have had her hand raised?

One element of the hive mind view that I do agree with is the fact this one is going to go the distance. Hill has been from bell to bell in 22 of her 30 fights. Ricci has six decisions from 10 bouts. I believe these strawweights will fight for three full rounds here.

As for the rhythm of the bout, I don’t think it is oversimplifying the matter to term this striking vs grappling. Hill will look to take her opponent to war as she always does. High output, high energy and with her eye on the prize. Ricci, meanwhile, will try and close space and wrestle her way to victory. Adept in the clinch and an expert at racking up points while smother strikers, she will look to make this a wrestling match.

It is a fine meshing of styles. Not quite a throwback to single-discipline early-MMA, but enough of a contrast to make it an intriguing battle of the techniques.

Hill vs Ricci Fight Odds

You might have gleaned from my analysis that these two are tough to split. The odds reflect that, with both Hill and Ricci available at 10/11 to win. This one is a real pick ’em.

UFC on ESPN 62 Full Card

Main Card

Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho

Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci

Ryan Loder vs. Robert Valentin Frey

Kaan Ofli vs. Mairon Santos

Neil Magny vs. Michael Morales

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Prelims

Dennis Buzukja vs. Francis Marshall

Zachary Reese vs. José Daniel Medina

Viacheslav Borshchev vs. James Llontop

Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs. Josiane Nune

Zygimantas Ramaska vs. Nathan Fletcher

Wang Cong vs. Victoria Leonardo

Hill vs Ricci Prediction

These girls are hard to separate, but separate them we must. I like Hill here. I feel her workrate and striking prowess will help her pick up points. If ‘Overkill’ can keep Ricci off her and avoid being mauled up-close, she can nick this one. My pick is Hill to win at 10/11.

You can find all our latest UFC betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights UFC page