UFC 321 Predictions: Arise Sir Tom – Britain’s Heavyweight boss meets Gane
UFC 321 lands in Abu Dhabi this Saturday, October 25 and it is a doozy. Britain’s own UFC Heavyweight Champion, Tom Aspinall, takes on French contender Ciryl Gane at the Etihad Arena in the UAE. TNT Sport Box Office will screen the event live in the UK, with an undercard featuring Mackenzie Dern, Alexander Volkov and Umar Nurmagomedov.
Read on for my UFC 321 Predictions here on Betfred Insights...
UFC 321 Betting Tips
*odds correct at time of publication
*You can bet on and check out all of the latest UFC 321 Betting Odds over on betfred.com
Headline Fight Odds:
Aspinall is 2/9 to prevail in his maiden undisputed title defence. Gane is priced at 16/5 to take home the title. If you fancy the quick finish, the fight is 6/4 not to last a round. If you reckon we see all five sessions, the fight is 5/1 to go the distance.
UFC 321 Preview
Aspinall is the first British fighter to reign as UFC Heavyweight Champion, but this is not how he wanted to receive the honour. The Salford boy won the Interim belt from with a 69-second stoppage of Sergei Pavlovich back in 2023. Aspinall finished Curtis Blaydes even quicker in July of last year, needing exactly a minute to blunt ‘Razor’.
The course was set for a crack at all-time great and then-UFC Heavyweight boss Jon Jones. Aspinall was primed and ready as the official back-up fighter when ‘Bones’ fought Stipe Miocic in November 2024, training to step in should either man withdraw ahead of the bout. That fight went off without a hitch, as Jones scored a spectacular third-round TKO sparked by a spinning front-kick.
But, just as he had before selecting Miocic as his next foe, Jones continued to move the goalposts. Aspinall campaigned. ‘Bones’ reneged. The Interim belt is supposed to clear a path to clarity. But Jones’ status as a UFC icon has always afforded him leniency. Eventually, after leading his challenger on a merry dance, the champion vacated his belt and called time on his decorated career.
Thus, Aspinall became the UFC Heavyweight Champion. Not with a booming Bruce Buffer announcement. Not, as he’d hoped, after beating the defining UFC fighter of the era in Jones. Instead, the coronation came via the administrative upgrade of his Interim title to the real McCoy.
In a way, Jones vacating the title and the Octagon could be the best thing for Aspinall. For his entire Interim reign he has been made to dance on strings held by his rival. Now, the power-puncher is free to do what he does best.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Gane is a challenger who must hear the clock ticking interminably behind him. The Frenchman has lost in two previous undisputed UFC Heavyweight Championship challenges and, if he is unsuccessful here, there is unlikely to be a fourth attempt. Only flyweight great Joseph Benavidez has exceeded three undisputed title shots without winning the title, though others have lost four championship fights if the Interim belt is included.
Gane can at least point to an the UFC Interim belt on his mantel, having won the vacant gong against Derrick Lewis back in 2021. Champion Francis Ngannou was in the opposite corner when Gane sought to unify. While ‘The Predator’ retained his crown, Gane remains the only man to take Ngannou the distance in an MMA fight since 2018. Ngannou’s last seven fights have featured five first-round knockouts and a second-round finish. But Gane was still standing tall at the end of their UFC 270 encounter.
The Frenchman is a 6’5" nightmare who has racked up victories over Lewis, Junior dos Santos, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Volkov, Tai Tuivasa and Serghei Spivac. Gane has never been knocked out and his only inside-distance defeat was a submission loss in the first round to Jones. The only defeats on his 13-2 record have come in UFC Heavyweight Championship fights.
That is one advantage Aspinall has, you could argue. Gane is yet to get over the hump when it comes to this particular accolade. The Interim win suggests ‘Bon Gamin’ can turn it on in a title fight. And he does have the mitigation of losing only to two modern legends. But Aspinall has one eye on becoming exactly that.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Aspinall’s Saturday night is all about firsts. The first defence of the undisputed title. Aiming to become the first man to knock Gane out. Perhaps doing so in the first round, the same session Aspinall has finished seven of his eight UFC victims in. But the Brit must beware. Perhaps Saturday holds Gane’s own first. The first day of his first UFC Heavyweight Championship reign.
UFC 321 Full Card
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane
Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista
Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida
Aleksandar Rakić vs Azamat Murzakanov
Prelims
Nasrat Haqparast vs Quillan Salkilld
Ikram Aliskerov vs Park Jun-yong
Ľudovít Klein vs Mateusz Rębecki
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo
Valter Walker vs Louie Sutherland
Nathaniel Wood vs Jose Miguel Delgado
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Chris Barnett
Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo
Jaqueline Amorim vs Mizuki Inoue
Odds correct at time of publishing.
UFC 321 Predictions
I am going to be both radical and safe here. I fancy Aspinall to retain his newly-minted belt inside the distance. But let’s take the 32-year-old out of his comfort zone. I think Gane goes in round two at 16/5.
On the undercard, Volkov is coming off a close decision loss to Gane himself. He faces Jailton Almeida, who has uncorked a pair of first-round knockouts in his last two fights. I reckon that run stops here and I like Volkov to spring the surprise at 17/10.
Nurmagomedov is on the comeback trail after losing a UFC Bantamweight title challenge to Merab Dvalishvili in January. Hot-streak riding Mario Bautista is a tricky opponent for his return, but I think Umar takes this in points at 4/6.
You can find all our latest UFC betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights UFC page
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