UFC 320: Alex ‘Poatan’ Pereira must do more against UFC champ Ankalaev

The Octagon opens its gates again this Saturday, October 4 when UFC 320 hits the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The headline attraction sees a rematch from UFC 313, as Magomed Ankalaev defends the UFC Light Heavyweight title against the man he won it from, the great Alex Pereira. The action will screen live on TNT Sports. 

Here are my UFC 320 predictions ahead of a red-hot fight card.

UFC 320 Odds

Ankalaev is 4/11 to beat the Brazilian again. Pereira is priced at 2/1 to score the victory. The last fight went the distance and you can get 21/20 on it doing so again. Meanwhile, if you think it stops inside the scheduled five rounds, you can back that choice at 8/11.

UFC 320 Preview

Ankalaev’s title win at UFC 313 had been a long time coming. After losing on his debut against Paul Craig in 2018, the Russian has cut a swathe through the division. 

A nine-fight winning streak landed Ankalaev a title tilt in 2022, against then-kingpin Jan Blachowicz. A split draw was the verdict, which still splits fans to this day. Blachowicz kept his man at bay with leg kicks, but when Ankalaev got close he dominated the wrestling match. It was a tricky one to call. 

Ankalaev’s career stalled when an accidental illegal knee rendered his subsequent fight as a No Contest, with opponent Johnny Walker unable to continue. The doubt was stubbornly erased in a rematch, with Ankalaev legally knocking his man out in the second round. 

A win over Aleksandar Rakic set up Ankalaev’s second title tilt. The Russian beat Pereira by decision in an attritional affair. The champion nullified a lot of Ankalaev’s takedown game, but Pereira was too gun-shy to throw bombs against an opponent as quick as the challenger. Ankalaev’s greater activity won the day, and the belt.

Pereira disputed the decision but few listened. ‘Poatan’ was not active enough and seemed to be banking on finding one or two big strikes to end the fight. When those openings did not arrive, Pereira had left it too late to retain his belt.

It was a turn-up for the books for the once-dominant light heavyweight. Since coming up to 205lbs in 2023, only Blachowicz had even lasted the distance with him. Pereira beat him by split decision before stopping champion Jiri Prochazka, Jamahal Hill, Prochazka in a rematch and Khalil Rountree. It was a frightening run and one many were backing to continue against Ankalaev.

Pereira gets his chance to show that the fire still burns. But against the schooled Ankalaev, that is a real challenge. The champion is from the Dagestani tradition, where Sambo wrestling is used to smother and frustrate attack-minded foes. The republic has produced great UFC champions like Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev, with Sambo essentially the house style.

Elsewhere on the card, UFC Bantamweight king Merab Dvalishvili defends his title against Cory Sandhagen, hot off the heels of his huge win over Sean O’Malley. Two men familiar with the main eventers jockey for position, as ex-champ Prochazka takes on Rountree, who clashed with Pereira in a title challenge. Featherweight Josh Emmett looks to bounce back from losing three of his last four, with Youssef Zalal the hot-streaking opponent. 

UFC 320 Full Card

Main Card

Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira

Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen

Jiří Procházka vs Khalil Rountree Jr.

Josh Emmett vs Youssef Zalal

Abusupiyan Magomedov vs Joe Pyfer

Prelims

Ateba Abega Gautier vs Treston Vines

Edmen Shahbazyan vs André Muniz

Chris Gutiérrez vs Farid Basharat

Daniel Santos vs Yoo Joo-sang

Early Prelims

Macy Chiasson vs Yana Santos

Patchy Mix vs Jakub Wikłacz

Punahele Soriano vs Nikolay Veretennikov

Ramiz Brahimaj vs Austin Vanderford

Veronica Hardy vs Brogan Walker

UFC 320 Predictions

I think Ankalaev has a foolproof plan for nullifying the strengths of Pereira. ‘Poatan’ is primarily a knockout artist and the champion’s smothering Sambo strategy is ridiculously effective at neutralising that quality.

Pereira will need to throw with more abandon this time out. Ankalaev can hit, too, so some caution will be needed. But stand off again like in the first fight and the same result will be rendered. 

I do see Pereira being a little more active, but I think the key here is “little”. The two-weight world champion knows he can’t just walk in throwing bombs, or he’ll spend the evening up against the fence. So Pereira will search for the single-shot again, just with more frequency. I don’t think he finds it. I’m taking Ankalaev on points at 7/5.

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