UFC 319 Predictions: Heavy duty middleweight clash tops the bill in Chicago

UFC 319 plays host to an appetising main event as UFC Middleweight Champion Dricus du Plessis takes on unbeaten phenom Khamzat Chimaev. The event takes place at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. Highly-ranked featherweight Lerone Murphy, big-punching Geoff Neal and ex-UFC Middleweight title challenger Jared Cannonier fight on the undercard. TNT Sports screens the event in the UK. 

Here are my UFC 319 predictions ahead of this weekend’s card.

UFC 319 Odds

Du Plessis is the 21/10 underdog here despite being a respected and highly-rated champion. That price is reflective largely of the abilities of Chimaev, who is 4/11 to get the job done. The Russian has an implied probability of victory that sits at 73.3%.

UFC 319 Event Preview

Du Plessis remains the UFC Middleweight Champion, with the South African looking to make his third successful defence. But some punters and pundits are only just starting to warm to a man they initially thought should not have the belt around his waist. 

Du Plessis’ battle for respect has been defined by the man he won the title from; Sean Strickland. The loudmouth from Anaheim gave Dricus all he could handle in their first fight, a stand-up war that ended in a split decision win for the challenger. The social media exchanges between supporters of each man were nearly as furious as a bout that took Fight of the Night bonus at UFC 297.

Du Plessis beat legendary two-time 185lb champion Israel Adesanya in his first defence, tapping ‘The Last Stylebender’ out with a neck crank. Sean’s fanbase were quick to point out their man had loosened Adesanya up, beating him in dominant fashion in his previous fight.

So Du Plessis settled the score in a rematch with Strickland at UFC 312. The champion retained his title via unanimous decision this time, with a brutal beating of his American challenger. By the time Du Plessis broke Strickland’s nose in round four, it was adding injury to insult. There was no way back for ‘Tarzan’.

Now he is out from under the Strickland rivalry that was bleeding (literally) into his every move, Du Plessis gets a dubious reward. Chimaev is one of the most feared men in mixed martial arts, a 14-0 all-rounder with the distinction of being the only ranked fighter in UFC never to have been taken down. 

Du Plessis has promised to do it, of course. That’s good marketing. But the UFC Champion would do well to lean more on his striking. It has been five years since Chimaev scored a knockout, when he took out Gerald Meerschaert in 17 seconds on a 2020 Fight Night card.

The challenger could look to drive this one to the ground, having racked up three submissions in his last five fights. Ex-champion Robert Whittaker, UFC veteran Kevin Holland and China’s jiu-jitsu specialist Li Jiangling were the men to succumb.

Despite spending a lot of their respective careers at different weights, size is unlikely to play a role. Du Plessis debuted as a middleweight in 2013 before dabbling at welterweight between 2015 and 2018. Chimaev bounced between 170lbs and 185lbs before settling at middleweight. Chimaev is two inches taller than the champion, but he gives up an inch of reach to Du Plessis.

Both men are good on their feet and on the mat, but with each avenue offering more to an individual. It may come down to who is better in a place where they are uncomfortable. Will Chimaev out-box Du Plessis on his feet? Can the champion fashion opportunities if his challenger takes him down? 

I fancy Chimaev to score the victory here. A fairly inactive fighter, he averages one fight a year while Du Plessis usually has two. Usually you would say sharpness could be an issue, but none of Chimaev’s 14 victims have exploited that potential weakness. The Russian always looks game-ready. While Chimaev is the same age as Du Plessis at 31, there is something fresher about him. I think that could make the difference in a close, gritty fight. I’m picking Chimaev on points at 9/2.

Elsewhere on the card, Manchester’s ‘Miracle’ Lerone Murphy looks likely to need one against debutant Aaron Pico. The latter is an elite freestyle wrestler who also won a Junior Golden Gloves in amateur boxing. It is the latter that Pico has relied on most in MMA, knocking out nine of his 13 victims. I like him to do the same here, knocking out the Brit at 18/5. 

Geoff Neal’s re-scheduled welterweight match-up with Carlos Prates looks like a good one styles-wise. Neal has 10 knockouts from 16 wins with his Brazilian opponent scoring 16 from 21 victories. This is a tough one to call and I see it being tense and perhaps a little cagey until the leather starts flying. When it does, I like Prates by knockout at 11/10.

Michael ‘Venom’ Page provides more British interest on the undercard as he takes on Jared Cannonier. Back in June 2024, ‘MVP’ lost to Ian Machado Garry who remarkably has beaten three men on the main card (Neal and Prates are the others). Page rebounded with a points win over Sharabutdin Magomedov. I do think he will fall just short here, with Cannonier looking good value at 11/4 for the decision win.

UFC 319 Full Card

Dricus du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev

Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico

Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates 

Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page

Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura

Preliminary card

King Green vs Carlos Diego Ferreira

Gerald Meerschaert vs Michał Oleksiejczuk

Baysangur Susurkaev vs Eric Nolan

Jéssica Andrade vs Loopy Godinez

Early preliminary card

Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez

Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose

Bryan Battle vs Nursulton Ruziboev

Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa

Rodrigo Sezinando vs Daniil Donchenko

Alibi Idiris vs Joseph Morales

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