UFC 315 Predictions: Last time Muhammad fought for glory, now he fights for recognition

UFC 315 emanates from the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec this Saturday, May 11. The pay-per-view card is headlined by Belal Muhammad’s first defence of the UFC Welterweight Championship, as he takes on Jack Della Maddalena. TNT Sports will broadcast the event live.

Here are my UFC 315 predictions ahead of the company’s eighth visit to the Canadian province.

UFC 315 Odds

Muhammad is 8/15 to win in the main event while his challenger, Maddalena, is priced at 6/4. The draw is available at 50/1.

UFC 315 Preview

The card is topped by Muhammad’s maiden defence of the UFC Welterweight strap he won from Birmingham’s Leon Edwards. That victory in Manchester last summer felt like vindication for the Palestinian-American. 

Muhammad has often been derided for fighting a “boring” style. The fact 18 of his 24 career wins have come by decision certainly does not indicate a fan-friendly style. But ultimately, MMA should be a meritocracy. It is up to his opponents to disrupt a winning formula that has seen Muhammad go undefeated for six years.

The title belt that now sits around his waist is the purest recognition one can gain in the sport. Fans did seem to come around to Muhammad a little in the wake of the Edwards win. Perhaps seeing the fullness of that style paying off on the biggest stage made it harder to deny its inherent qualities.

If fans are hoping for a title challenger who will try and make it a firefight, they might be in luck. Maddalena has 12 knockouts from his 19 wins plus two submission finishes. Ironically, the Australian has earned this shot the hard way. Two of his three career decision wins came in his last three fights. 

But, just when you thought he might have grown accustomed to involving the judges, Maddalena knocked out former UFC title challenger Gilbert Burns. Peaking at the right time, now ‘JDM’ looks to upset the new champion.

Elsewhere on the card, women’s pound-for-pound number-one Valentina Shevchenko is back in action. She defends the UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship against France’s dominant Manon Fiorot. 

Fiorot is unbeaten since her 2018 MMA debut and has won all seven of her UFC contests. The names have just got bigger as she has battled her way to Shevchenko. ‘Thug’ Rose Namajunas, Jennifer Maia and Erin Blanchfield have all been dealt with. But now Fiorot goes in with the biggest name, and the best fighter, in the UFC women’s category.

For the first time since her 2022 win over Taila Santos, Shevchenko is preparing to go into the Octagon against someone other than rival Alexa Grasso. The Mexican submitted her in their first fight two years ago before failing to regain her title in a drawn rematch.

‘Bullet’ finally set the record straight in their trilogy bout, winning a split decision to reign once again as queen of the flyweights. With the rivalry at 1-1-1, there are whispers of a settler. But Shevchenko has plenty on her plate already with the formidable Fiorot.

Strong undercard support comes from future Hall of Famer Jose Aldo, one of the all-time greats. His 13-second knockout win over Conor McGregor is one of the defining moments in UFC history, but it is a long time since the 38-year-old icon made that sort of impact. 

Aldo has lost two of his last three, though many feel he should have gotten the nod in his split decision loss to Mario Bautista. Against Aiemann Zahabi, the legendary two-time UFC champ gets to enter the fight as a betting favourite. Will he make good on that backing in the cage?

There are also outings for Shevchenko’s great rival Grasso, who meets Natalia Silva and light heavyweight Benoit Saint Denis who clashes with Kyle Prepolec. There is also a fight on the prelims for former Strawweight champion, and Shevchenko victim, Jessica Andrade. She looks to rebound from a loss last time out as she takes on Jasmine Jasudavicius.

UFC 315 Full Card

Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena

Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot

José Aldo vs Aiemann Zahabi

Alexa Grasso vs Natália Silva

Benoît Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec 

Prelims

Mike Malott vs Charles Radtke

Jéssica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cuțelaba

Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan

Early Prelims 

Marc-André Barriault vs Bruno Silva

Daniel Santos vs Lee Jeong-yeong

Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan

UFC 315 Predictions

I like the way Maddalena fights and he has been in some exciting bouts throughout his career. He will come to win, that’s for sure. But Muhammad has a way of negating his opponents’ greatest strengths and fighting his fight.

It is hardly groundbreaking to say Muhammad will win by decision (1/1) but that is going to be my pick. I always aim to bring you success and never push a prediction I don’t believe in. Which is why the champion retaining his belt on points is both the most obvious choice and my choice.

Shevchenko does not often come in as an underdog, but Fiorot is narrowly-backed to beat her here. I think at 37 it is only natural one starts to wonder what is left in the chamber of the ‘Bullet’. 

However, I do think Shevchenko has enough to hold onto her top spot for a little longer. I’m backing Shevchenko to win by any means at 11/10.

Aldo is a legendary figure in need of a win against Zahabi. Both of these men can strike, which could dictate the match-up. Or it could lead to some caution.

I am predicting the latter. At 38, Aldo needs control not a taxing war. I’m backing him to pick up the decision at 10/11.

You can find all our latest UFC betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights UFC page