UFC 314 Predictions: Volkanovski’s last chance at the top?

Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes will clash in the main event of UFC 314 for the vacant UFC Featherweight Championship. The blockbuster pay-per-view takes place at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. TNT Sports will broadcast the event live, which also features outings for Michael Chandler, Paddy Pimblett and Yair Rodriguez.

Here are my UFC 314 predictions ahead of this weekend’s big card.

UFC 314 Odds

Volkanovski is 8/11 while Lopes is priced at 11/10. The draw is 50/1. 

UFC 314 Preview

‘Volk’ aims to get back the UFC Featherweight Championship he lost last February. The man who took the belt from him, Ilia Topuria, has vacated the championship to pursue opportunities up at lightweight.

That move is something Volkanovski knows a lot about. While still holding the featherweight strap, Alexander ‘The Great’ twice attempted to win the UFC Lightweight Championship. Islam Makhachev was his undoing on both occasions and remains the champion to this day. Their first fight was close and a certified modern classic. The second saw Makhachev stop ‘Volk’, ending the rivalry decisively.

Some think that those forays up in weight ultimately harmed Volkanovski’s featherweight campaign. Volkanovski’s title loss to Topuria came just three months after the Makhachev knockout. Topuria took ‘The Great’ out in two rounds, raising further questions about how robust Volkanovski is these days.

Two years ago, Volkanovski had never lost in the UFC. Now he has lost three of his last four fights, albeit two of those were outside his natural weight. Life comes at you fast. If he is unsuccessful in this fight, another title shot will be a long time coming.

Looking to make sure that doomsday scenario occurs is Lopes. His only UFC defeat was in a Fight of the Night with Movsar Evloev on his debut. That fight took place on five days' notice, which absolves Lopes somewhat.

Since then Lopes has been unstoppable, racking up five victories with three finishes. A decision win over two-time title challenger Brian Ortega helped secure Saturday’s assignment. That will have been good preparation for this one, considering the fact Ortega took ‘Volk’ the distance in a championship fight back in 2021.

Elsewhere on the card, Britain’s always-vocal Paddy Pimblett gets his toughest UFC test yet. Michael Chandler had been set to feature as Conor McGregor’s comeback opponent. But with ‘Notorious’ about as likely to fight again as Manchester United are to win the Premier League, he has pivoted to another of MMA’s mouthy practitioners.

Pimblett is the Marmite of the Octagon. You either love his outspoken nature or you see him as a fighter promoted beyond his level of competency due to his marketability. This fight with Chandler will tell us more about where Pimblett’s divisive talents fit.

Chandler is coming off a couple of defeats, but those losses have come against elite level fighters. Charles Oliveira beat him via decision in a thriller while Dustin Poirier choked him out back in 2022. Both bouts won Fight of the Night bonuses, but that is no substitute for one in the win column.

Yair Rodriguez, another former Volkanovski foe, tangles with Patricio Pitbull on the undercard. The former has fought once since losing to ‘Volk’, a defeat to Brian Ortega. Meanwhile, Pitbull is making his debut having moved over from Bellator. The Brazilian is considered the greatest fighter in the history of that organisation, but the UFC is a different kettle of fish altogether.