UFC 312 Predictions: Du Plessis can make it repeat rather than revenge

UFC 312 will see Dricus Du Plessis defend his UFC Middleweight Championship against the man he won it from a year ago, Sean Strickland. The bout will headline at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia on Sunday, February 9. TNT Sports will broadcast the event live.

Here are my UFC 312 predictions ahead of this mammoth middleweight match-up.

UFC 312 Odds

The champion, Du Plessis, is priced at 4/9 to repeat the feat and overcome his challenger for the second time. Strickland is 7/4 to regain his championship and even up the score at 1-1 in their series.

UFC 312 Preview

These men have done this dance before. It was Du Plessis who curtailed the Middleweight title reign of Strickland with a split decision win back at UFC 297. The result was hotly-contested in the MMA community. 

UFC President Dana White claimed to have Strickland winning. Some fans agreed, while others pointed out the six takedowns Du Plessis was able to land as having swung it his way. Strickland landed more significant strikes, 173-137. But it should be noted that Strickland only actually outlanded his opponent in two of the five rounds, with the disparity due to him scoring with significantly more punches in rounds one and five. 

In short, it was a mighty close call. Rather than a robbery, this was a rare case of a fight that could truly have gone either way. This rematch might have taken 13 months to arrive, but it is a necessity.

Both men had one further bout in 2024 after their Fight of the Night meeting. A look at how they each got on could inform any views on Sunday’s showdown.

First, the dethroned champion. Strickland was back in the famous Octagon in June of last year. He met Paulo Costa in the co-main event of UFC 302 in Newark, New Jersey. The results was a split decision in Strickland’s favour, but this is deceptive. Fans protested against the one judge who did rule in Costa’s favour, with Strickland having dominated the fight.

There was criticism for Strickland displaying a perceived lack of cutting edge. He was content to work behind his jab for most of the night, only really opening up with his shots towards the end of the fight. You sense that such reluctance will be summarily punished on Sunday.

Du Plessis’ singular outing was more decisive. The UFC Middleweight boss tapped out the legendary Israel Adesanya with a neck crank to retain his title. ‘The Last Stylebender’ was favoured to beat ‘Stillknocks’ in their title fight at UFC 305. But the South African kicked his title reign off with an emphatic and symbolic win over the future Hall of Famer. 

Given the fact Adesanya lost last weekend to Nassourdine Imavov, one could certainly argue that this Strickland rematch represents Du Plessis’ toughest test. Equally, the same could be said for Strickland. He goes back in with the man who ended his maiden UFC title reign. This one was close last time and I expect nothing less in this outing.

Undercard Picks

On the undercard there is two fights I'm highlighting for tips. The first is Zhang Weili, who is a 1/1 shot in her UFC Strawweight Championship defence against Tatiana Suarez. The challenger is unbeaten, but 'Magnum' is the best fighter she has ever faced. The champion is in a rare position for her, as she enters the fight as the underdog. But I feel comfortable in backing Weili to retain her title on Sunday.

The second fight I'd like to bring up is Justin Tafa vs Tallison Teixeira. The latter makes his belated UFC debut after his proposed fight with Lukasz Brzeski was cancelled. I'm backing the Brazilian, an undefeated 7-0, to overcome Tafa. 'Bad Man' is struggling for form and I believe Teixeira will capitalise at 8/11.

UFC 312 Full Card

Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland

Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez

Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira

Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado

Prelims

Jack Jenkins vs. Gabriel Santos 

Tom Nolan vs. Viacheslav Borshchev 

Wang Cong vs. Bruna Brasil 

Colby Thicknesse vs. Aleksandre Topuria 

Early Prelims

Rong Zhu vs. Kody Steele 

Jonathan Micallef vs. Kevin Jousset 

Quillan Salkilld vs. Anshul Jubli 

Hyun Sung Park vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

UFC 312 Prediction

I anticipate another close fight here. Strickland is guilty of being tentative at times and he’ll be looking to avoid Du Plessis’ takedowns. I think the champion will find a way to land them though.

That means Strickland has to try and win this on the feet. I haven’t seen enough aggression from him recently, aside from in his toxic press interviews, to convince me he can do that.

I’m picking Du Plessis to retain the championship at 4/9.

You can find all our latest UFC betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights UFC page