UFC 304 Predictions: Opening odds and preview for the Manchester card

UFC 304 rolls into the Co-op Live Arena in Manchester on Saturday, July 27. The first sporting event to take place at the new facility, fans can expect an array of action in the iconic Octagon. The card will be main-evented by UFC Welterweight Champion Leon Edwards, as the Birmingham man defends his crown against Belal Muhammad.

Here is a look at the opening odds for UFC 304 along with some early predictions for how this stacked show could play out.

Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad

The legacy of ‘Rocky’ continues to grow. While Michael Bisping will take some beating in the national hero stakes, Edwards is making a huge impact as a Brit in global MMA. This is his third defence of the title he won via a stunning upset over Kamaru Usman back in 2022.

Muhammad has struggled to break through with crowds due to a style that delivers function over fireworks. 17 of his 23 wins have come by decision, with ‘Remember The Name’ looking to grind down opponents rather than finish them off.

These two fought back in 2018, with Edwards’ striking prowess taking precedence until an accidental eye poke in the second round left Muhammad unable to continue. Neither man has lost a fight since that No Contest and now they clash with the UFC belt on the line.

Opening Odds: Edwards 4/9 Muhammad 7/4

Prediction: I think Edwards’ superior striking will bring a sense of urgency out of Muhammad. He just doesn’t find that way, meaning ‘Rocky’ can find openings to land shots. I am backing Edwards to retain his title in Manchester.

Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes

Aspinall is the first British fighter ever to capture a UFC Heavyweight title, though his version remains in the ‘interim’ category due to Jon Jones’ stranglehold on the main championship. The Salford star has called out ‘Bones’ but to no avail. 

Instead, Curtis Blaydes will step into the cage on hostile ground. ‘Razor’ is used to being up against it. A win over Jailton Almeida last time out put the 33-year-old in the frame for this rematch.

Blaydes technically holds a win over Aspinall, after a knee injury to the Brit ended their first fight in just 15 seconds. Now we hope the pair will share some proper time in the Octagon in this fascinating heavyweight rematch.

Opening Odds: Aspinall 2/5 Blaydes 15/8

Prediction: This fight is important for Aspinall. A blemish exists on his record that he doesn’t deserve after the knee injury last time. Now a champion, I feel like Aspinall will perform like one and take the victory.

Bobby Green vs Paddy Pimblett

Paddy, oh Paddy. Hero to some, villain to others. The Scouse star is unabashedly opinionated and uncommonly brash. He is also 4-0 in the UFC and has become a mainstream name in just a few years.

Some argue he has benefitted from unfair decisions and weak opposition. Handing a 40-year-old Tony Ferguson his seventh straight loss last time out didn’t help with those allegations. But Paddy makes money and is a natural fit for a big British card.

The UFC have taken the criticism on board opponent-wise, with ‘The Baddy’ matched against a fighter favoured to beat him here. Green beat fellow veteran Jim Miller last time out and is 3-1-1 in his last five. 

Opening Odds: Green 4/6 Pimblett 6/5

Prediction: Despite coming in as an underdog, I fancy Paddy here. He always shows out for a home crowd and Green is another veteran name at 37. These are the sorts of fights ‘The Baddy’ finds a way to win and I think he will here.

Muhammad Mokaev vs Manel Kape

Number six plays number eight in the UFC flyweight rankings. Former Rizin champion Kape looks to do what 13 men have failed to do by inflicting a first career defeat on Mokaev.

It’s a well-matched fight this one. Kape has won four on the bounce coming in, including a Fight of the Night effort against Felipe dos Santos in his last bout. Meanwhile, Mokaev rides into Manchester after March win over Alex Perez in Las Vegas.

Opening Odds: Mokaev 4/5 Kape 1/1

Prediction: I am going with the man who has never lost here. This is a fairly even fight but I can’t see past ‘The Punisher. Mokaev can nick this, possibly on the cards.

Arnold Allen vs Giga Chikadze

Ipswich-born featherweight Allen returns to his home country trying to put a pair of defeats behind him. A loss to the legendary Max Holloway was the first of his UFC tenure. Things went from bad to worse when Movsar Evloev outpointed Allen last time out. 

Those losses came at the elite level and Allen comes up for air here for a slightly easier outing. But make no mistake, Chikadze is still an excellent fighter. A win over ‘Bruce Leeroy’ Alex Caceres last time out proved that. ‘Ninja’ is ranked ninth in the UFC standings and with good reason.

Opening Odds: Allen 4/9 Chikadze 7/4

Prediction: You’ll notice that in my previous predictions I have gone with the British fighter every time. I am afraid Allen will not be the beneficiary of this same treatment. Something tells me his recent slump, which as admittedly arrived against incredible fighters, will have an impact. Chikadze is the last man you’d want to fight if you are on a bad run. I’m picking ‘Ninja’ to get it done.

You can find all our latest UFC betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights UFC page