UFC 302 Predictions: Makhachev and Strickland lead the way

UFC 302 takes place this Saturday, June 1 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The MMA giant is bringing a stacked card to the Tri-state area, headlined by Islam Makhachev defending his UFC Lightweight Championship against Dustin Poirier. TNT Sports will screen the show in the UK.

Here are my UFC 302 predictions ahead of a quality night of fights.

UFC 302 Odds

Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier

Champions do not come any more dominant than Makhachev. The Dagestan-born star currently sits atop the UFC’s official pound-for-pound rankings and it is easy to see why.

Makhachev’s last three fights alone are enough to strike fear into opponents. Victories over Charles Oliveira and Alexander Volkanovski, the latter occurring twice, represent a run as good as any in the sport.

Poirier knows all about springing a surprise on the big stage. He went 2-1 with Conor McGregor in their trilogy. Even if the third fight was settled by an injury, nobody can argue with the knockout he scored over ‘Notorious’ in their second bout.

This is likely to be Poirier’s last chance at the UFC Lightweight title, having lost in previous challenges to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Oliveira. ‘The Diamond’ has held the interim version in the past, by virtue of a decision win over Max Holloway.

I’m going for the champion to retain here. In this sort of form he looks unstoppable and, while I expect Poirier to be brave, it won’t be enough. I’m plumping for Makhachev to win via submission at 1/1. It is an outcome that was once his speciality until he diversified his game into complete dominance. Expect Saturday to be a throwback.

Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa

Number-one ranked middleweight contender Strickland is never far from the headlines. Often it is what he says rather than what he does that puts him there. But still, Dana White and the UFC have never shied away from controversy. Like McGregor and Colby Covington before him, Strickland plays up a problematic persona to increase the amount of eyeballs watching his career unfold.

Strickland leveraged this reputation after losing his UFC Middleweight Championship to Dricus du Plessis last time out. Plenty of fans were willing to claim Strickland deserved to win the decision simply because they agree with his controversial views. A politicised pyrrhic victory that distorted reality.

Against Paulo Costa he probably won’t need the campaigning of his devoted fanbase. The Brazilian is gifted but declining, having lost three of his last four. I’m backing Strickland to add to that number via decision at 2/1. 

Only the strike-master Israel Adesanya has got Costa out of there and Strickland knows how to grind out a victory over the distance, doing so in 13 of his 28 wins. This one is going long.

Kevin Holland vs Michal Oleksiejczuk

This contest might not have a title on the line but there is so much at stake. Holland returns to middleweight on a losing skid. Welterweight defeats to Jack Della Maddalena and Michael Page have blunted his momentum. 

Meanwhile, Oleksiejczuk was submitted in just one minute last time out by Michel Pereira. This is a weak spot for the Polish fighter, who has been beaten by submission five times while only one of his 19 wins have come via the method.

Holland knows his way around a submission, with seven such victories on his ledger. But it is not his primary weapon, with his kickboxing background usually doing the talking. Holland has 14 knockout wins from 25 victories.

Oleksiejczuk can handle himself standing, with 14 knockouts of his own from 19 victories. Expect this one to break out into a war. 

I think Holland will get the victory here. His skillset is more diverse and victories last year over Santiago Ponzinibbio and Michael Chiesa showed he has plenty left in the tank. ‘Trailblazer’ is 4/11 to get it done if you want to add him to your acca. 

Jailton Almeida vs Alexander Romanov

No UFC pay-per-view is truly complete without a heavyweight throwdown. Brazil’s Almeida is usually good value, having earned three Performance of the Night bonuses in the past. He has beaten quality competition like Derrick Lewis and Jairzinho Rozenstruik to earn seventh place in the UFC heavyweight rankings.

Romanov is 13th in the standings and got back to winning ways last time out after two consecutive losses. A decision win over former PFL champion Blagoy Ivanov was more like it after defeats to Marcin Tybura and Alexander Volkov.

Now he steps up in class again, but will it be a bridge too far? I think so. Romanov is an accomplished wrestler who has never been submitted. But Almeida is adept on the mat or standing. I can see his broad skillset being enough to take a win here at 4/11.

Randy Brown vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

The welterweights will open the main UFC 302 card, with Brown and Dos Santos each in fair form. The latter drew with Rinat Fakhretdinov last time out, but had won two on the trot beforehand. Brown is riding a two-fight win streak also.

Brown is the superior all-rounder of the two. His 18 wins are divided into seven knockouts, five submissions and six decisions. Wherever this fight goes, ‘Rude Boy’ is capable of winning it.

Dos Santos is more predictable, with his Capoeira background making him a lethal striker. His Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt shows adaptability, but it is on his feet where the damage is usually done.

I give the edge to Brown here. His overall game is better and his recent victories give him more momentum than a Dos Santos who was hurt by Fakhretdinov in their thrilling draw. Brown is 4/7 to prevail here.

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