UFC 299 Predictions: O’Malley looks set for revenge against Vera

UFC 299 takes place this Saturday March 9, emanating from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. The card will be broadcast live in the UK on TNT Sports. The main event sees Sean O’Malley defend his UFC bantamweight championship against Marlon Vera. Betfred Insights brings you fight tips and a preview for that red-hot Florida main event.

These two are no strangers to each other. Vera actually inflicted the last defeat of O’Malley’s career, stopping the current champion in the first round back at UFC 252 in summer 2020. O’Malley suffered a leg injury on the night, rendering him helpless to a Vera TKO barrage that ended the fight. Usually a rematch has an instructive first fight to go on, but arguably we can glean little from their first encounter in this case.

For a start, O’Malley has blossomed since that reverse. He is unbeaten in six fights since, picking up Performance or Fight of the Night in five of those encounters. Every win came via a finish apart from a split decision win over Petr Yan. Simply put, O’Malley is in the form of his life. That form landed him the UFC bantamweight belt last time out as he knocked out the mighty Aljamain Sterling.

Vera on the other hand is 5-2 since beating O’Malley. Losses to UFC legend Jose Aldo and Cory Sandhagen haven’t stalled his career, but they do cast question marks coming into this bout. O’Malley has been performing at a higher level recently, racking up finishes and winning in championship class.

Stylistically this is a tough one for Vera too. O’Malley’s reach advantage and adeptness at boxing from range make this a dangerous proposition. In a fight where neither man is coming to wrestle, and O’Malley has had more success both in broad terms and in terms of winning inside the distance, you’d have to lean towards the champion.

However, Vera has never been stopped. Every single one of his eight defeats went the distance. That durability stands him in good stead, as does the psychological edge of his win in the first bout. Injury or no injury, O’Malley will be wondering if he can beat Vera. ‘Chito’ doesn’t have the same mental block, knowing he’s had his opponent’s number before. 

When it comes to providing a prediction, I do believe O’Malley will have enough. Maybe not enough to become the first man to stop Vera. I still believe the Californian’s durability will allow him to hear the final bell. I can see this becoming a tactical striking match-up and if that is the case, O’Malley is better-equipped to triumph. My pick is O’Malley on points at 11/8.

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