UFC 298 Predictions: Volkanovski gets back to business at featherweight

With industry chatter focused on the relative merits of the UFC 300 card, it is easy to forget there are two pay-per-views and six Fight Night outings before that milestone occasion. This weekend’s UFC 298 is certainly worthy of some shine even in the shadow of the approaching monolith.

The main event is a UFC featherweight championship affair between kingpin Alexander Volkanovski and unbeaten contender Ilia Topuria. A worthy headliner is backed up with some quality action on the undercard too. 

The co-main event sees former UFC middleweight champion Robert Whittaker take on sixth-ranked challenger Paulo Costa. Geoff Neal battles unbeaten Irishman Ian Machado Garry at welterweight. Former two-weight world champion Henry Cejudo has his second fight since returning from retirement as he meets elite bantamweight Merab Dvalishvili.

The main event is as balanced a headliner as one can ask for. It is also something of a curio, with the champion actually coming off a loss. Featherweight king Volkanovski went up to lightweight in his last bout to challenge UFC champion Islam Makhachev for the second time. 

Their first bout, in February 2023, was a classic battle that would go on to clinch Fight of the Year honours. Volkanovski would lose via unanimous decision, but he ran the champion close enough to warrant another go.  But their second meeting was a damaging first-round knockout defeat for ‘Volk’, who now returns to featherweight having lost two of his last three fights.

Meanwhile, the momentum sits squarely in Topuria’s corner. The Spaniard has never lost as a professional, racking up a 14-0 record with 12 finishes. Once known as a submission specialist, since moving to the UFC he has added more facets to his game. After going 8-0 with seven submission victories before joining the UFC, Topuria has three knockouts, two decisions and one submission in the company. The maturation of a true mixed martial artist.

What will this broad range of skills mean for Volkanovski? It means he’s in for a tough fight, that is certain. Topuria is more schooled on the mat, though as a BJJ black belt Alexander ‘The Great’ can certainly handle himself. But Volkanovski’s Muay Thai background makes him the greater threat if the fight stays standing. 

This fine balance is reflected in the odds. The champion, Volkanovski, is 4/5 to retain the gold while Topuria is EVS to continue his winning run. Six of Volkanovski’s last 10 UFC wins have come via decision. Given the close nature of this fight, the champion to win by decision at 11/4 is not a bad shout at all.

The co-main event finds two top middleweights with something to prove. Whittaker is coming off a defeat to Dricus Du Plessis. Given that his conqueror is now the UFC middleweight champion, there is no shame in that. But it does pull into question what the Australian has left at the age of 33, over four years removed from losing that same championship to Israel Adesanya.

Costa knows how losing to ‘The Last Stylebender’ feels. His own title challenge ended in two rounds at the hands of Adesanya back in September 2020. ‘Borrachinha’ has only fought twice since. He followed up a loss to Marvin Vettori in October 2021 with a win over Luke Rockhold ten months later. He hasn’t fought since that August 2022 bout.

It has been a while since we have seen either man at his best. This bout is likely to come down to who has more left in the tank at this stage in their career. Whittaker has had almost twice as many fights as Costa. But he has also won at a higher level and is arguably sharper due to fighting twice since Costa’s last bout. For this reason I’m leaning towards Whittaker, who is priced at 4/9 to win this one.

Full Card

Main Card

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria 

Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa 

Ian Machado Garry vs. Geoff Neal 

Henry Cejudo vs. Merab Dvalishvili 

Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov 

Prelims

Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Lemos 

Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Justin Tafa 

Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera 

Zhang Mingyang vs. Brendson Ribeiro 

Early Prelims

Josh Quinlan vs. Danny Barlow 

Oban Elliott vs. Val Woodburn 

Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick