Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov Prediction: Coronation of the Young Eagle?

Merab Dvalishvili puts his UFC Bantamweight Championship on the line this Saturday, January 18, against Umar Nurmagomedov. The bout co-headlines UFC 311, emanating from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. The event will be broadcast live on TNT Sports. 

Here are my Dvalishvili vs Nurmagomedov predictions ahead of this tantalising title fight.

Dvalishvili vs Nurmagomedov Fight Odds

Dvalishvili is a 9/4 underdog here in his first title defence. The dominant Nurmagomedov is pitched as a 1/3 favourite, playing into the idea of this as a coronation. You can get a meaty 50/1 on the draw.

Fight Preview

The parameters of MMA are changing and our challenger on Saturday night is one of the fighters changing them. In a shift from boxing, the unbeaten record is a rare sight in top level Mixed Martial Arts. While pugilism often protects its prospects, especially in the UFC there is a sink-or-swim mantra that dictates you will be matched tough from the get-go.

This means that even the best fighters incur losses. It is a very rare sight to see a fighter reach the top of the game with zero defeats on his record. Look at Dvalishvili. A world champion and the pound-for-pound number seven fighter in the company, but even he has four losses on his ledger.

The same cannot be said of his challenger. Nurmagomedov is 18-0 in his professional journey. Perhaps there is something in the genes. His brother, Bellator’s Usman Nurmagomedov, is also 18-0. Meanwhile, cousin Khabib Nurmagomedov retired at 29-0 as reigning UFC Lightweight Champion and a lock for the Hall of Fame.

This is atypical of MMA, particularly in the UFC. Unlike boxing, where fighters are sometimes steered through the path of least resistance, if you want to fight the best in the UFC you earn the chance by winning tough fights.

Which makes Nurmagomedov’s ascension to this title shot all the more impressive. Wins over the likes of Cory Sandhagen, Raoni Barcelos, Brian Kelleher and Nate Maness defy the idea that he has been matched carefully. The Russian has earned every bit of this billing.

This is being talked about in the industry as a coronation, which is not entirely fair. Dvalishvili is more than a worthy champion. He has been a standard-bearer for the sport in recent years. Those efforts came to fruition when he sprung a huge upset during the very first sporting event held at The Sphere in Las Vegas.

The UFC had been banking on the colourful Sean O’Malley to lead a new era of bantamweight fighting. The outspoken ‘Suga’ Sean had beaten Aljamain Sterling via knockout to claim the UFC title, before defending successfully against Marlon Vera. Most expected him to walk away from the challenge of Dvalishvili with his title very much intact.

But Dvalishvili sprung the shock with a quite superb display of grappling prowess. It was a memorable bout, featuring the challenger jaw-jacking with O’Malley’s coach in the first round before planting a kiss on the champion in the second. After his opponent rallied on the feet, Dvalishvili ground him down in the fifth round with numerous takedowns to close out the decision win.

That sort of calm under pressure is incredibly impressive, and will serve Dvalishvili well here. To have the presence of mind and confidence to be shouting-and-kissing while supposedly the underdog is incredible. One would suggest Dvalishvili focuses his mind a little more this time, but the fact he can find serenity on the battlefield is nonetheless a positive. 

He will need it. Nurmagomedov looks every inch a champion in the making. Cousin Khabib has stuck to his retirement vow. The UFC has yet another bad man from Dagestan. This time he carries the famous surname. Will Nurmagomedov join Khabib in holding a belt?

UFC 311 Full Card

Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill

Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder

Preliminary card

Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos

Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac 

Zachary Reese vs. Sedriques Dumas

Early preliminary card

Grant Dawson vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira

Karol Rosa vs. Ailín Pérez 

Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov

Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter

Dvalishvili vs Nurmagomedov Prediction

Nurmagomedov has more wins by decision (nine) than any other method. Dvalishvili has three points defeats in his four losses. I think that will be the story here. 

Dvalishvili is good enough to hang with Nurmagomedov, but I don’t think he is quite accomplished enough to beat him. I can see this one going five rounds with some tense exchanges before the challenger pulls away. My tip is Nurmagomedov on points at 1/1.

You can find all our latest UFC betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights UFC page