Kevin Holland vs Reinier de Ridder Prediction: Can Trailblazer stop the rot against de Ridder?

UFC stalwart Kevin Holland takes on former One FC champion Reinier de Ridder this Saturday, January 18. The bout takes place at UFC 311 on the undercard of UFC Lightweight kingpin Islam Makhachev’s rematch with Arman Tsarukyan. 

Here are my Holland vs De Ridder predictions ahead of this middleweight meeting.

Holland vs De Ridder Odds

Surprisingly given their respective direction of travel, this is a close one. Holland is 10/11 to secure a victory. It speaks to Holland’s confidence against submissions, pitched against a consummate grappler. De Ridder is 5/6 to get the W. A rarely-glimpsed draw is priced at 50/1.

Fight Preview

Holland is something of an iron man in the UFC. Constantly active, he has never fought less than three times per annum. In 2020, 12 months to forget for most, he sealed the joint-most wins in a calendar in UFC history with five. It felt like a banner period upon which Holland could build.

Holland’s activity has barely dropped, but his performances have fluctuated. He has fought 13 times since 2020, with a record of 5-7 with one No Contest. The last two years have been particularly difficult, with two losses per three fights in both 2023 and 2024. 

At the age of 32, there could still be mileage in Holland. But you have to go back to April 2023 for his last victory over a fighter who was not coming off a defeat. ‘Trailblazer’ is still capable at a certain level, but it isn’t one that gets you the big fights.

The question now is whether Holland can retain his motivation. Being unable to build on an incredible 2020 must have hurt. But Holland did what he always does, he kept fighting. Death, taxes and Kevin in the cage. Three utter certainties.

De Ridder has come into the UFC with a lot of excitement surrounding him. 18-2, both his defeats came to the mighty Anatoly Malykhin. De Ridder lost his One FC Light Heavyweight title in the first fight and then his Middleweight version in the second. But you don’t hold those two titles simultaneously without being a special fighter.

After signing off from independent MMA with a knockout of Magomedmurad Khasaev last July, De Ridder moved to the UFC. A win over teak-tough veteran Gerald Meerschaert on his debut was a strong message. Now he goes in with another of the UFC’s most enduring competitors.

‘The Dutch Knight’ is a master of the ground game, with 12 submissions among his 18 victories. A BJJ and judo black belt, this is not a man you do want to grapple with. One FC’s multi-discipline structure meant that, alongside MMA, De Ridder was able to compete in submission grappling. The Dutchman has been able to stay sharp across all disciplines while plying his trade.

It is interesting to note that in 39 fights, only three people have submitted Holland. Unbeaten monster Khamzat Chimaev is one. Brendan Allen, holder of the second-most submission wins in middleweight history, is another. Bellator Light Heavyweight kingpin Rafael Lovato Jr, who retired undefeated, is the third. The takeaway? You have to be at the very elite level to tap out the ‘Trailblazer’. 

I like this as a piece of matchmaking. Take a fighter with a superb skillset in submissions and grappling. Pitch him against a fighter who is good at defending those situations. One who will ask questions of his stand-up game. Holland has 14 knockouts in 26 victories. Make no mistake, he will try and turn this from a wrestling match into a brawl. 

Perhaps the strangest stat ahead of this fight is the fighter’s ages. While Holland has been a UFC fixture for seven years and countless fights, de Ridder is making his promotional debut. The Dutchman has just over half as many fights on his record as Holland. But he is actually two years older than the American at 34.

De Ridder has been booked in this fight for two reasons. To test his mettle and to impress. The company wants to see what he’s got against an opponent who has been there and done it. Holland is someone stylistically-built to test De Ridder. That in itself should make for a fascinating match-up.

UFC 311 Full Card

Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill

Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder

Preliminary card

Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos

Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac 

Zachary Reese vs. Sedriques Dumas

Early preliminary card

Grant Dawson vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira

Karol Rosa vs. Ailín Pérez 

Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov

Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter

Holland vs De Ridder Prediction

I like De Ridder in this fight. I’m not 100% convinced he’ll get the finish, though I refuse to rule it out with my pick. But I do think the ex-One FC champ will find a way. I’m going for De Ridder at 5/6.

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