Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista Prediction: ‘Junior’ can turn back the clock

Living legend Jose Aldo returns to the Octagon this Satuday, October 5, against Mario Bautista. The fight takes place at UFC 307, live from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. TNT Sports will cover the action in the UK.

Here are my Aldo vs Bautista predictions ahead of this bantamweight battle.

Aldo is going straight into the Hall of Fame when he retires. Such treatment is befitting quite possibly the best featherweight fighter of all time. For six years Aldo reigned first as WEC champion, before the UFC absorbed that company and upgraded him to UFC championship status.

Over the course of his half-dozen years at the top, Aldo made nine title defences. His quarry were a who’s-who of fantastic feathers. Urijah Faber, ‘K-Flo’ Kenny Florian, Chad Mendes, Frankie Edgar, The Korean Zombie. Aldo beat them all as he ran up the most successful title defences in UFC history.

It is a tragedy that the end of Aldo’s reign is perhaps his most famous fight. A 13-second knockout defeat to Conor McGregor does not deserve to define him. While the snack-sized destruction will always be the most replayed moment of his fighting life, Aldo was so much more.

The question now is whether he still is. Aldo rebounded at the time, winning the interim title and seeing it upgraded when McGregor vacated the belt proper. But back-to-back losses to Max Holloway ended his title days at featherweight.

Two Performance of the Night-winning victories followed, before a run of three consecutive defeats left many wondering if Aldo was ready to call it a day. Aldo moved down to bantamweight after the first, a decision defeat to Alexander Volkanovski, who would go on to win the featherweight belt. 

Marlon Moraes beat Aldo then UFC Bantamweight Champion Petr Yan stopped him. Aldo had got that title shot based on name value more than anything. Observers wondered if that was all he had left to offer.

Good wins over Pedro Munhoz, Marlon Vera and Rob Font. Aldo’s most recent defeat was to now-bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. The Brazilian legend retired in the aftermath, stepping away from the sport for what amounted to 20 months. But the call of the cage was one Aldo had to answer.

‘Junior’ returned in May, beating 12th-ranked Johnathan Martinez by decision. His foe had won six in a row going in, but Aldo looked sharp as he outpointed his man. Far from a nostalgic comeback, the 38-year-old showed he can still compete.

Aldo is not here to tread water. He goes straight back in with another in-form contender in Bautista. The Arizona resident is riding a six-fight winning streak that has him sitting 11th in the rankings. Bautista is on a career run. Victory over a legend like Aldo will punch his ticket into the upper echelons.

That is easier said than done, even given Aldo’s age. After a shaky start, fighting at bantamweight seems to have rejuvenated the Brazilian. The lay-off doesn’t seem to have hurt either. Time away can see a fighter lose their edge. But it can also be a time of recuperation. Aldo looked sharp and fit in the Bautista win. Can he carry on his late-career revival this weekend?

Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista Fight Odds

Aldo is a 11/10 underdog to rack up a second consecutive victory here. Bautista is 8/11 to go seven-from-seven. The draw is available at 50/1.

UFC 307 Full Card

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña 

José Aldo vs. Mario Bautista 

Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison 

Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland 

Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley 

Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo 

César Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria 

Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux 

Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington 

Court McGee vs. Tim Means

Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista Prediction

This seems on the surface like a heart vs head decision. Of course the man who is six years younger and on a hot streak will beat the battle-worn veteran. But you could have said that last time and Aldo stunned us all against Martinez.

That performance wasn’t lucky, close or controversial. It was a domination that showed far more than shades of the old Aldo. I don’t think the Brazilian will reach his old heights at 38. I do not foresee another title run. But another victory against a younger fighter? Sure.

For that reason, I am backing Aldo here. I’m tipping ‘Junior’ to take the win at 11/10.

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