Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan Prediction: Title rematch headlines UFC 311

UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev defends his championship against old foe Arman Tsarukyan this Saturday, January 18. The bout headlines a massive UFC 311 card at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. TNT Sports will broadcast the event in the UK.

Here are my Makhachev vs Tsarukyan predictions ahead of this lightweight five-rounder.

Makhachev vs Tsarukyan Fight Odds

The champion comes in as a 2/7 favourite, a reflection of every accolade we have outlined here. Tsarukyan is a 5/2 underdog, with an implied probability of 28.6% for a victory. A tough ask, but this is far from mission impossible.

Fight Preview

These two know each other well. Back in 2019, Makhachev outpointed Tsarukyan over three rounds in a Fight of the Night battle. Both men have excelled in the years since, with the champion going unbeaten and his challenger only losing once in his 10 subsequent fights.

This is a main event of real quality, even if Makhachev is a clear favourite. Tsarukyan has fought his way into contendership the hard way. ‘Akhalkalakets’ mastered pound-for-pounder Charles Oliveira on the ground to edge a narrow split decision and earn this title shot. 

Taking a victory from one of the modern greats is worth a crack at the belt in anyone’s book. In truth, Tsarukyan went into that fight on a run that featured victories over Beneil Dariush, Joaquim Silva and Damir Ismagulov. The Armenian star hasn’t lost a fight in two-and-a-half years, when Mateusz Gamrot outpointed him over five rounds in a Fight of the Night winner.

However, Tsarukyan is still not the fighter in the best form coming into this fight. Makhachev has won a stunning 14 fights on the bounce, stretching back a decade. The champion has taken both a title belt and a performance bonus home in each of his last four bouts. 

Makhachev is currently third on the all-time list of longest UFC winning streaks. If he can beat Tsarukyan here, he will tie Kamaru Usman in second on 15. It is the only active winning streak in the top 10. Makhachev is quite simply the most dominant fighter in the UFC today.

It is not just the volume of victories the Russian has racked up, but their quality and nature. Two wins over Alexander Volkanovski, including one by first-round knockout. A submission over Dustin Poirier. An arm-triangle tapout of Oliveira. There is winning, there is beating the best and there is winning spectacularly. Makhachev ticks every box.

How do you plan for facing the current UFC Pound-For-Pound leader? Tsarukyan came up short against a less-terrifying version of this man over five years ago. Granted, the challenger has improved but so has the champion. 

Tsarukyan might be best-placed to try and keep this one standing. While capable as a striker, Makhachev’s real strength comes on the mat. 12 submissions across his 26 wins compared to just five knockouts bears this out. The Russian has nine decisions too, showing a level of all-roundedness. 

But Tsarukyan probably edges this on power. Nine knockouts in 22 fights is a solid return, including four in his last six wins. Conversely, the challenger has just five submission victories, meaning waging war on that front will likely not pay off.

Realistically, it is hard to see Tsarukyan taking it no matter where the battle is fought. Makhachev is quite simply everything you look for in a modern MMA fighter. His winning streak, his endless performance bonuses, his overthrowing of Jon Jones as the number-one fighter in the sport. 

But this isn’t David vs Goliath. Even if it was, we all know who won that biblical bash-up. But Tsarukyan is here on merit. The Armenian has done everything necessary to earn this title opportunity. Now all that’s left is to make sure his years of incredible effort since his first meeting with Makhachev pay off.

UFC 311 Full Card

Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill

Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder

Preliminary card

Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos

Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac 

Zachary Reese vs. Sedriques Dumas

Early preliminary card

Grant Dawson vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira

Karol Rosa vs. Ailín Pérez 

Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov

Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter

Makhachev vs Tsarukyan Prediction

It would be a fool’s errand to pick against the champion here. Makhachev is so well-versed in getting a result from big fights. I feel he will do exactly that here once again.

Tsarukyan has never lost by submission, which is his opponent’s chief tactic. Therefore I feel this one will go the full five rounds and end in a decision. Makhachev on points is my pick at 1/1.

You can find all our latest UFC betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights UFC page