Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway Prediction: The next big thing meets the elder statesmen

Ilia Topuria defends his UFC Featherweight Championship against former kingpin Max Holloway this Saturday, October 26. The bout tops UFC 308, taking place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. TNT Sports will broadcast the event.

Here are my Topuria vs Holloway predictions ahead of this colossal main event.

Topuria brought about the end of an era in his last outing. In knocking out Alexander Volkanovski in the second round at UFC 298, he ended the longest active title reign in the UFC. ‘Volk’ had been champion since 2019, racking up five successful defences. Topuria also became the first man to beat Volkanovski at featherweight, with his only defeats having come at lightweight and welterweight.

It has been all quiet on the Western Front since that February win. Volkanovski displayed a level of sour grapes when he questioned why Topuria has not been more active during his reign. It is a fair point from a fighter who fought three times last year. Though the taste of sour grapes is also tangible.

There was talk that Topuria’s lay-off was because he was in the hat for Conor McGregor’s return. It is a fight the new champion has talked up whenever asked. But with the Octagon absence of ‘Notorious’ approaching its fourth year, Topuria goes in with a more present UFC legend instead.

Holloway has had his own run-ins with Volkanovski. Three of them in fact. That trilogy ended in a trio of defeats for Max. But there were close fights in there, particularly the middle one at UFC 251. Many made the argument that Holloway won that bout, leading to a third fight uncommon in rivalries where the same fighter won the first two bouts. 

‘Volk’ dominated their third outing, winning a unanimous decision at UFC 276. But Holloway is unbeaten since, earning another shot at the crown he won from the great Jose Aldo back in 2017. 

Holloway scored a unanimous decision over British hope Arnold Allen in April 2023. ‘The Pride of Hawaii’ followed that fine result up in style. First, he knocked out ‘The Korean Zombie’ Chan Sung Jung in three rounds. Then Holloway won the unofficial BMF title belt with a fifth-round stoppage of Justin Gaethje. The finish went viral as Holloway beckoned his opponent into the centre of the ring, indicating he wanted a fistfight, before knocking him cold. It was a warrior-like finish from the veteran.

Now Holloway goes in with ‘El Matador’ looking to become UFC Featherweight Champion for a second time. Still only 32, there are a lot of miles on Holloway’s 33-fight clock. Along with Gaethje, Aldo, Volkanovski and ‘Zombie’ he has also fought Dustin Poirier, Cub Swanson, Frankie Edgar, Yair Rodriguez, Charles Oliveira and Anthony Pettis among many others. Holloway’s record stands up against any fighter you could name in terms of level of competition.

Topuria fits the bill. The 15-0 Georgian-Spaniard is ranked fourth in the UFC pound-for-pound list. Holloway is 11th in that ranking, with more than just featherweight supremacy on the line here. This is a truly intriguing main event featuring one of the division’s modern greats against the new face of featherweight.

Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway Fight Odds

Topuria is a 2/5 favourite in this one. Max is 2/1 to pull off the win. A draw will set you back 50/1.

UFC 308 Full Card

Main Card

Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway 

Robert Whittaker vs Khamzat Chimaev 

Lerone Murphy vs Dan Ige 

Magomed Ankalaev vs Aleksandar Rakic 

Shara Magomedov vs Armen Petrosyan 

Prelims

Geoff Neal vs Rafael dos Anjos 

Mateusz Rebecki vs Myktybek Orolbai 

Said Nurmagomedov vs Daniel Santos 

Abus Magomedov vs Bruno Ferreira 

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Justin Tafa

Faris Basharat vs Victor Hugo

Ismail Naurdiev vs Bruno Silva

Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Nursulton Ruziboev 

Ibo Aslan vs Rafael Cerqueira

Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway Predictions

This is a tough one to call. You just can’t count Holloway out. But I’m afraid I am going to have to. I like Topuria in this one. 15-0 and coming off a career-best win, I just think the champion edges this. 

In seven defeats, nobody has ever knocked out Max and only Poirier submitted him. That was over a decade ago now. I think Topuria, who is admittedly a submission master, will have to go the distance here for only the third time. I’m picking a Topuria decision at 11/4.

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