Du Plessis vs Adesanya Predictions: ‘Stylebender’ can return to the throne

UFC Middleweight Champion Dricus Du Plessis defends his title against Israel Adesanya this Sunday, August 18. The fight will headline UFC 305 at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. TNT Sports will televise the action. 

Here are my Du Plessis vs Adesanya predictions ahead of this huge pay-per-view main event.

This fight has felt inevitable for a while. Adesanya lost this very belt to Sean Strickland in September of last year. ‘Tarzan’ then dropped the title to Du Plessis in his first defence. In lieu of a rematch with Strickland, Adesanya now gets a chance to regain his gold against ‘DDP’.

Strickland will feel put out that he isn’t the one getting this Down Under date, given how close his own fight with Du Plessis was and the fact he has beaten Adesanya already. But this is a worthy main event in its own right and his shot at the winner will almost certainly come.

In many ways, Du Plessis could have been made in a laboratory as a perfect Israel Adesanya opponent. The South African relentlessly presses forward, throwing punches in bunches and trying to land takedowns. This pressure is largely effective, but it also leaves openings.

Adesanya, meanwhile, likes to sit back and invite his opponents onto his devastating strikes. ‘The Last Stylebender’ aims to pick off his foes, letting them make mistakes before brutally punishing them. This was evident in his last victory, when the New Zealander knocked Pereira out while fending off a flurry. It was a spectacular finish that earned Knockout of the Year in the 2023 UFC Honors. 

But it is Adesanya’s one fight since then that casts doubt over his ability to replicate that performance against Du Plessis. The Nigeria-born middleweight looked hesitant and tentative against Strickland last September. ‘Tarzan’ was allowed to dictate the pace as Adesanya humbly surrendered his UFC title by unanimous decision.

At the age of 35, is a life spent at the sharp end of combat sports finally coming home to roost? Alongside 27 MMA contests, Adesanya has also boxed professionally six times and has competed in 80 kickboxing bouts. That is a huge amount of high-level competition for one career. Surely something has to give?

If Adesanya is battle-weary, Du Plessis will seize upon him. ‘Stillknocks’ is on a roll recently, winning nine consecutive fights. As well as Strickland, he has beaten the likes of Darren Till, Robert Whitaker and Derek Brunson in that stretch. Of those nine wins, seven have finished inside the distance.

Given Du Plessis’ hot streak, his relative youth at the age of 30 and his recent title success, this fight seems pitched as a passing of the torch. As we will see, that is not quite borne out by the odds. It is also a theory that leans heavily on Adesanya’s apparent decline.

I do not believe he has fallen that far. Is this the same ‘Last Stylebender’ who altered MMA to his very will as he ascended the pound-for-pound list? Perhaps not. But last year, he knocked Pereira out to reclaim the UFC Middleweight belt. ‘Poatan’ has since gone on to capture the UFC title up at light heavyweight. I believe the Adesanya that scored that victory still burns inside the body of the challenger.

Du Plessis vs Adesanya Fight Odds

A testament to how close this one is, both men are priced 10/11 to win here. A draw is 50/1 and, whole stalemates are a UFC rarity, it is perhaps worth a punt given how closely matched the oddsmakers have deemed Du Plessis and Adesanya.

UFC 305 Full Card

Main card

Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya

Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker

Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates

Preliminary card

Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker

Joshua Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos

Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos

Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns

Early preliminary card

Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes

Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn

Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesús Santos Aguilar

Du Plessis vs Adesanya Prediction

I think this will be Adesanya’s night. It might be his last one of this kind. At 35 and with visible wear-and-tear, there likely won’t be many more big title wins on pay-per-view. Savour this, a salute to one of the great modern UFC superstars.

My pick is Adesanya to win at 10/11. Godspeed, Stylebender.

You can find all our latest UFC betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights UFC page