Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano Prediction: A crossroads clash at lightweight

Beneil Dariush will square off with Renato Moicano this Saturday, January 18 at UFC 311. The event takes place at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. The main event sees UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev defend his title against Arman Tsarukyan in a rematch. You can watch the show live on TNT Sports.

Here are my Dariush vs Moicano predictions ahead of this lightweight collision.

Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano Odds

Moicano is your 8/13 favourite. Four consecutive victories will do that for a fighter. Dariush is 5/4, reflecting his recent struggle for form. The draw is the customary 50/1, a testament to their rarity in UFC.

Fight Preview

Nine plays 10 in the UFC Lightweight rankings in this fight, though both have taken very different roads to their positions. 

Dariush is ranked higher at nine, but is coming off two defeats. The reason for his continued position is the fact those losses came against two of the very best in the division. Main eventer Tsarukyan knocked out Dariush in his last fight. In the one before, former champion Charles Oliveira stopped Dariush. 

Both losses came in the very first round, putting a once-promising run up on bricks for Dariush. Before this duo of disappointments, the Iran-born American was on quite the roll.

Dariush racked up eight wins on the trot, including high-profile scalps like Tony Ferguson and Mateusz Gamrot. A title shot was not far away, until Dariush came unstuck against one of the modern greats in Oliveira. 

Perhaps he would have benefitted from lighter work than the in-form Tsarukyan in his follow-up fight, but you can’t blame Dariush for wanting to take the quickest route back to the top. Nothing ventured, nothing gained after all. Sadly, sometimes that sort of bravery is punished, though.

Moicano comes into this bout ranked one place lower than his opponent, but enjoying much better form. His last four fights were all victories, with three coming inside the distance. Common foe Dober lost on points while Moicano knocked out Jalin Turner and Benoit Saint Denis, as well as submitting Brad Ridell.

Intriguingly, those two knockouts in his most recent fights are the first two of Moicano’s career. Before stopping Turner and Saint Denis, the Brazilian was better known for submission grappling. 10 of his 20 career victories came via tapout, a testament to his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt.

But Moicano also holds a black belt in Muay Thai. This guy can strike, even if the majority of his wins have come by other means. That diversity of ability will serve him well given Dariush’s status as something of an all-rounder. He has five knockouts, eight submissions and nine decisions on his record. Dariush is a fighter who has multiple tools at his disposal.

Something has to give here. Either Dariush snaps his losing streak and becomes a credible threat to the lightweight throng once more. Or Moicano continues the sort of run that feels sure to net him a title shot before long. This one sits on a knife edge. Make sure you tune in, it’s going to be a good one.

UFC 311 Full Card

Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill

Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder

Preliminary card

Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos

Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac 

Zachary Reese vs. Sedriques Dumas

Early preliminary card

Grant Dawson vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira

Karol Rosa vs. Ailín Pérez 

Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov

Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter

Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano Prediction

I am going to go against the grain here. Moicano is in wonderful form while Dariush is struggling. But the latter has also been in with two of the very best on the planet in recent fights. 

Is Moicano at that level? Perhaps. But I’m not quite convinced at this stage. I think Dariush scores a career-replenishing win at 5/4.

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