Aspinall vs Blaydes Predictions: Redemption time for champion Tom

UFC Interim Heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall fights in his hometown this Saturday, July 27 against Curtis Blaydes. Manchester’s newly-minted Co-op Live Arena will play host to UFC 304, where Aspinall’s title defence will serve as the co-main event. TNT Sports 1 will broadcast the card live, including the main event clash between UFC Welterweight kingpin Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad.

Here are my Aspinall vs Blaydes predictions ahead of this blockbuster battle.

These two heavyweights have actually met before, though their first meeting was brief to say the least. Aspinall tore ligaments in his knee, crumpling to canvas and leading to Blaydes being awarded the fight by TKO. Even ‘Razor’ would not have wanted the fight settled in such a way. This rematch is logical on all-sides.

Blaydes also has the added carrot of the UFC Interim belt to fight for now. The American will know that Aspinall’s name sits on his record in name only. Blaydes will be determined to walk into his opponent’s backyard and take the title.

Aspinall must have thought this day would never come. In the year of activity that followed the disastrous injury, the Salford man has admitted he considered quitting the sport. Those dark nights of the soul have given way to the golden period of Aspinall’s career.

After a Performance of the Night TKO of Marcin Tybura in 73 seconds on his return, Aspinall targeted titles. Absentee UFC Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones had been out of the cage for 20 months, necessitating the crowning of an interim belt-holder.

Aspinall got his chance in a fight for the vacant interim belt against Sergei Pavlovich. The Russian rode into the bout on a string of eye-catching victories and Performance awards. But Aspinall crumpled him in 69 seconds to become the UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion. Two wins, 142 seconds, one belt. Suddenly that talk of retirement felt like a distant memory.

Don’t rule out Aspinall pulling off another short-form masterpiece. Blaydes was knocked out in a shade over three minutes by Pavlovich two fights ago. ‘Razor’ has also been blunted by Francis Ngannou twice, once in 45 seconds. Derrick Lewis has also knocked him out. 

While all four of Blaydes’ defeats have seen him stopped, the 33-year-old has also finished 13 of 18 opponents by KO or TKO. With five decisions and no submissions, you know Blaydes will look to keep this on the feet. Unfortunately, that is exactly where Aspinall wants it.

The Brit has 11 knockouts on his ledger along with three submissions. Aspinall’s only losses came via the injury against Blaydes, a disqualification and a submission. Against an opponent he will be confident he can stop, the champion is likely to try and meet Blaydes fire with his own in a stand-up affair.

Aspinall vs Blaydes Fight Odds

Aspinall is 2/7 to take the win on home turf. Blaydes is priced at 11/4 to spring the upset and walk out the victor. The draw, a UFC rarity, is 50/1.

UFC 304 Full Card

Main card 

Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes 

Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett 

Christopher Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues 

Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze 

Prelims

Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda 

Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil 

Jake Hadley vs. Caolan Loughran 

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio 

Early Prelims 

Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons 

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape 

Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie 

Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski 

Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean

Aspinall vs Blaydes Prediction

We are in for a firefight and, to be blunt, I think it will be brief. Aspinall has wasted no time in his comeback fights and I think this will be no different. Blaydes is there to be hit and I think the champion will oblige.

I am going for Aspinall to win this fight by knockout at 8/11. Hopefully Jones is watching and a long-overdue unification fight can be set in motion.