Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Prediction: ‘Poatan’ will perform as per usual

UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Alex Pereira defends his title against Khalil Rountree this Saturday, October 5. The bout headlines UFC 307, which emanates from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. TNT Sports will carry the broadcast.

Here are my Pereira vs Rountree predictions ahead of this main event showdown.

Pereira is a fighter you can set your watch to. Since joining the UFC in November 2021, ‘Poatan’ has competed three times a year like clockwork. In a sport where stars like Conor McGregor and Jon Jones appear once every few years, it is refreshing to see a big name fighter in the cage so often.

The Brazilian has reaped the benefits too. Has anyone built a Hall of Fame-worthy resume as quickly as Pereira? ‘Poatan’ is the only fighter in history to hold both the UFC Middleweight and Light Heavyweight belts. All but one of his wins have come against a former or reigning belt-holder. Pereira holds the record for the shortest time taken to win two UFC titles. He has the fourth-highest significant strike percentage in company history. The champion has won five Performance of the Night awards in nine UFC fights.

The 37-year-old could retire tomorrow and he would go down as one of the all-time greats. Which makes the fact these achievements have come over the course of three years simply mind-boggling. Just put it into perspective when compared to the UFC’s top draws. Jones, who is the same age as Pereira, has fought just once during the Brazilian’s UFC tenure. McGregor, a year younger at 36, has not fought at all during Pereira’s stint.

Pereira in the Octagon is a common sight for fans and an intimidating one for opponents. But Rountree likely won’t feel such fear. ‘The War Horse’ is on the best run of his MMA career as he finally reaches title contention eight years after his UFC debut.

Rountree is on a streak of five consecutive victories, the most he has ever strung together back-to-back. Only Dustin Jacoby has taken him the distance in that time, with the other four wins all coming by TKO.

Modestas Bukauskas, Karl Roberson, Chris Daukaus and Anthony Smith have all been stopped by Rountree. The man from Los Angeles is on a tear the likes of which few expected from him. Rountree lost his first two UFC bouts and later went on a run of three defeats from four fights. But the 31-year-old has found exceptional form and has pounded his way into contention.

Facing Pereira is different gravy, though. Rountree has never fought a competitor of this quality, even when he’s lost. Pereira is the number-two ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC. His list of scalps includes greats like Israel Adesanya, champions like Jiri Prochazka and former or future belt-holders like Jan Blachowicz and Sean Strickland. There is no fat on Pereira’s nine-fight UFC resume.

Across two divisions, only the iconic Adesanya has beaten him. That was a rematch, after Pereira stopped ‘The Last Stylebender’ in their first fight. This means ‘Poatan’ has defeated every man he has faced in the Octagon. Can Rountree buck the trend?

Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Fight Odds

Pereira is a 1/5 favourite to get the job done. Rountree going six-for-six is a 10/3 pick while the draw is priced at 50/1.

UFC 307 Full Card

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña 

José Aldo vs. Mario Bautista 

Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison 

Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland 

Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley 

Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo 

César Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria 

Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux 

Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington 

Court McGee vs. Tim Means

Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Prediction

I can’t see past ‘Poatan’ making another statement of his enduring brilliance here. Pereira can control the fight wherever it heads, though I see it staying on the feet. I’m picking the champion to retain his belt by knockout at odds of 1/3.

You can find all our latest UFC betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights UFC page