Wimbledon Men’s Singles Final Tips: Alcaraz to oust Djokovic again in five-setter

After two weeks of action, it all comes down to Centre Court at the All England Lawn Club on Sunday (14:00, BBC One) as Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic meet in back-to-back Wimbledon Men's Singles Finals.

Alcaraz triumphed 3-1 in last year's final but hasn't been in peak form this month, while seven-time champion Djokovic is looking for revenge after losing his first Wimbledon Men's Singles Final last year. Read on for my Wimbledon Men's Singles Final tips ahead of another potential classic on Sunday.

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Wimbledon Odds

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Odds

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Over 42.5 total games @ 11/10

It's been a pretty straightforward journey to the Wimbledon Men's Singles Final for Djokovic, who has played one less match than Alcaraz on account of Alex De Minaur's withdrawal from their quarter-final on Wednesday.

The 37-year-old has won three of his five matches in straight sets including his last two against Holger Rune and Lorenzo Musetti, with only his four-set victory over Jacob Fearnley (6-3, 6-4, 5-7, 7-5) in the second round seeing over 42.5 total games.

However, Sunday should provide his sternest test yet, giving the Serb and his recently-operated knee a lot more to think about.

Alcaraz began the tournament with straight-set successes over Mark Lajal and Aleksandar Vukic but was then forced to five sets by Frances Tiafoe (5-7, 6-2, 4-6, 7-6, 6-2), with a total of 50 games won in that match.

The Spaniard won his next three matches 3-1 against Ugo Humbert, Tommy Paul and Daniel Medvedev, with the latter proving his most difficult test and going just under 42.5 total games (41 - 6-7, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4).

Last year's Wimbledon Men's Singles Final produced a total of 45 games as the 21-year-old emerged victorious over five sets (1-6, 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-4), and I think we could see something similar on Sunday.

Set one winner - Novak Djokovic @ 1/1

Slow starts have characterised Alcaraz's 2024 Wimbledon, as the world number three has lost the first set in three of his last four matches.

His most recent outing, Friday's semi-final win against Medvedev, saw the Spaniard make some really poor shot selections which were pounced upon by his opponent. There were flashes of his usual brilliance, but sloppy errors handed the first set to the Russian.

Alcaraz made 15 unforced errors in that first set, the same number he recorded in the quarters against Paul, and he only made two fewer in the first set against Tiafoe. In all of those matches, his most unforced errors came in the opening set.

Like the three aforementioned opponents, Djokovic is primed to take advantage of an uncertain Alcaraz start.

The world number two has only lost the opening set once this tournament, against Alexei Popyrin in the fourth round, and will be well aware that a quick start could be crucial to his chances of beating an opponent 16 years his junior.

Djokovic coasted to a 6-1 success in under 34 minutes in the first set of last year's Wimbledon Men's Singles Final, and will be hoping for something similar this time around.

Carlos Alcaraz to win match 3-2 @ 4/1

It took five sets for the Spaniard to claim his first Wimbledon Men's Singles title last year, and I think we could be in for another highly-entertaining match again this weekend.

As previously alluded to, Alcaraz hasn't had it all his own way this month, and has had to show tremendous resolve to bounce back three times from losing the first set.

Of course, few really doubted his ability to come back in those matches, but at his tender age, nothing is ever really certain, and he has really come through the test of his credentials.

Djokovic has been consumed by a siege mentality this year, repeatedly calling out the Wimbledon crowds who have been left rather bemused by his behaviour towards them, so we can probably expect that Alcaraz is given more of the love on Sunday.

That's sure to drive the Serb on, who will be giving everything to wreak his revenge on Alcaraz for his first Wimbledon Men's Singles Final defeat in 2023.

I can see Djokovic taking two of the first three sets before Alcaraz's athleticism reigns supreme later on, handing the Spaniard back-to-back Wimbledon titles.

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