US Open Final Betting Tips: Alcaraz to exact revenge on Sinner

The match most tennis fans were dreaming of; Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will tussle it out on Sunday (19:05 BST, Sky Sports Main Event/Tennis) in the 2025 US Open final, with the two top-ranked men's players both looking to be crowned champion in Flushing Meadows for the second time. The World No. 1 ranking is also up for grabs, too.

Below are my US Open Final Tennis Betting Tips for a match you can watch live via Betfred.com.

#PickYourPunt - First set to finish 7-5 or 7-6 to either player @ 7/4

I successfully tipped there to be at least one tiebreak between Aryna Sabalenka and Amanda Anisimova in Saturday's US Open Women's Singles final betting preview. For the Men's Singles final, I'm again looking to the #PickYourPunt market.

My first selection is for the opening set to finish 7-5 or 7-6 to either player, and it's a bet that has landed once each for Sinner and Alcaraz at this tournament.

Crucially, though, it has been a winner in half (seven) of their 14 ATP Tour meetings, including five of their eight hard-court matches.

The first set played between the Italian and Spaniard this calendar year saw the latter win 7-6 in the Italian Open final, with Alcaraz claiming the title in Rome with a 6-1 success in the second set. The next two head-to-heads, at the French Open and Wimbledon finals, saw Alcaraz and Sinner, respectively, win the first set 6-4, so a 7-5 or 7-6 scoreline has never felt far away.

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Odds

Sinner has been the standout player on the ATP Tour over the past two seasons, winning 110 of his 120 matches (92%) and lifting 10 titles, while Alcaraz has won 114 of his 133 matches (86%) and also claimed 10 titles.

There is such little to choose between the two stars, so a tiebreak always feels likely.

Alcaraz is yet to drop a set at this year's US Open, while Sinner has won the first set in five of his six matches, highlighting the ability of both players to start strong.

Both have also been seriously impressive servers in New York, with Alcaraz only dropping serve twice in his six matches so far. That only puts the 22-year-old (98%) slightly ahead of Sinner (95%) at the top of the pile in service games won.

A case can be made for both players starting strong, so a 7-5 or 7-6 scoreline for either in the first set appeals at 7/4.

#PickYourPunt - Carlos Alcaraz to win & over 42.5 total games @ 11/4

Alcaraz boasts a 9-5 record against Sinner on the ATP Tour, and leads 3-2 at Grand Slams, although the Italian won the most recent completed match, July's Wimbledon final, in four sets (4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4), before retiring due to illness at last month's Cincinnati Open final with the Spaniard 5-0 up in the first set.

On outdoor hard courts, Alcaraz is 5-2 up and won the only previous meeting between the pair at the US Open 6-3, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5, 6-3 in 2022.

I'm expecting a close contest between the two, which is why backing over 42.5 total games looks wise. This selection failed to land at this year's Wimbledon final, falling three games short, but their three previous matches at Grand Slams went to five sets, with 56 games recorded in their 2022 US Open quarter-final.

US Open Men's Singles Odds

It's Alcaraz who I'm championing for success, though, as he bids to even up the Grand Slam titles this year. Sinner won the first at the Australian Open, and after Alcaraz hit back at Roland Garros, the 24-year-old claimed his first Wimbledon title.

Sinner is also the defending US Open champion, having beaten Taylor Fritz (6-3, 6-4, 7-5) last year.

Alcaraz hasn't won the US Open since making it his first major title in 2022, and he will be desperate to be crowned King of New York again. That triumph three years ago remains his only hard-court Grand Slam title, so he has a lot to prove on the surface compared to Sinner, who has won three of his four majors (Australian Open x2, US Open) on hard.

While there is little to split between Sinner, the number one seed, and Alcaraz, the number two seed, the latter can probably claim to be in slightly better form post-Wimbledon, as he won the Cincinnati Open, albeit his rival was forced to retire due to illness. It means, though, that Alcaraz hasn't lost since July 13, and that Wimbledon defeat is his only one in his last 31 matches.

Sinner, meanwhile, has lost three of his last 22 contests and has dropped a couple of sets in Flushing Meadows, while Alcaraz holds a perfect record.

It's a toss of a coin, really, but Alcaraz's determination to level up for the year and prove his hard-court credentials make him the most likely champion, in my eyes, so I'm taking him to win and over 42.5 total games at 11/4.

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