Tennis Betting Tips: Mboko to make more memories in Montreal

Only one of Tuesday's three selections landed, but it was a nice 5/2 winner as Clara Tauson took out Madison Keys 6-1, 6-4 for a straight-sets victory in the Canadian Open quarter-finals.

We head to Montreal again for the first of Wednesday's Tennis Betting Tips, which you can check out below, before heading to Toronto for the ATP event.

Match Betting - Victoria Mboko (CAN) to beat Elena Rybakina (KAZ) @ 6/4

I'm done doubting Victoria Mboko now; I tipped Jessica Bouzas Maneiro to beat the 18-year-old in straight sets in their Canadian Open quarter-final on Tuesday, but she sent the Spaniard packing 6-4, 6-2 in Montreal to record her fourth straight-sets victory at the WTA 1000 event.

Mboko beat Kimberly Birrell (7-5, 6-3) and Sofia Kenin (6-2, 6-3) in the first and second rounds, respectively, and upset the odds against World No. 2 Coco Gauff (6-1, 6-4) in the last 16. Only Marie Bouzkova (1-6, 6-3, 6-0), in the third round, has taken the teenager to a third set.

Admittedly, the Canadian's last defeat came against her next opponent, Elena Rybakina (3-6, 5-7), in the Washington Open second round last month, but that second set showed there wasn't a huge gulf in quality between them, and this time around, Mboko will feel the benefit of a home crowd rooting her every shot.

Rybakina is the established pro in this match, with the 26-year-old holding nine WTA Tour-level singles titles, and she's not been tested too hard in Montreal this year, beating Hailey Baptiste (6-4, 6-3) and Jaqueline Cristian (6-0, 7-6) in straight sets before overcoming Dayana Yastremska (5-7, 6-2, 7-5) in the third round. Then, in the last 16, up 6-1, 2-1, her opponent, Marta Kostyuk, was forced to retire, bringing the contest to a close after 53 minutes.

This could be a tight encounter on Wednesday, but considering the form Mboko is in, her high levels of confidence, and the home advantage she is enjoying, 6/4 for her to beat Rybakina looks to be on the generous side, to me.

Set Betting - Clara Tauson (DEN) 2-1 vs Naomi Osaka (JAP) @ 18/5

The second semi-final in Montreal sees Tauson take on Naomi Osaka, with both players easing to quarter-final victories over Keys and Elina Svitolina (6-2, 6-2), respectively.

Tauson hasn't dropped a set at this year's Canadian Open, beating Lucia Bronzetti (6-1, 6-2), Yuliia Starodubtseva (6-3, 6-0) and Iga Swiatek (7-6, 6-3) en route to the final eight, where Keys came a cropper.

Osaka entered at the first round and has dropped just a single set across her five matches against Ariana Arseneault (6-4, 6-2), Liudmila Samsonova (4-6, 7-6, 6-3), Jelena Ostapenko (6-2, 6-4), Anastasija Sevastova (6-1, 6-0) and Svitolina.

The four-time Grand Slam winner is looking to find her way back to the top after taking maternity leave in 2023 and dropping down the rankings, with the former World No. 1 unseeded for this tournament.

I can see the Japanese player winning a set in her semi-final against Tauson, but it's the Dane who I'm backing to come out on top, after she beat two reigning Grand Slam champions, Swiatek and Keys, in the last 16 and quarter-finals, respectively.

The 22-year-old has remained unflustered throughout and wasn't broken even once by Keys. She's playing at a seriously high level, and despite Osaka's best efforts, I believe Tauson will emerge triumphant after three sets.

The only previous meeting between these two was at the Auckland Open in January this year, when Tauson took the first set 6-4 before Osaka retired due to injury.

Total Games 3 - Over 24.5 in Ben Shelton (USA) vs Taylor Fritz (USA) @ 4/5

I backed over 25.5 total games in Ben Shelton's quarter-final against Alex de Minaur, but the former was broken just once, compared to the Australian's tally of three, and the American ran out a 6-3, 6-4 in Toronto to set up a final-four tie with compatriot Taylor Fritz, who beat Andrey Rublev 6-3, 7-6 in the previous round.

This will be a battle of the big servers in the semis, and a tiebreak or two, or maybe even three, is more than possible.

The only previous meeting between the two, at the Indian Wells Open in 2023, saw Fritz triumph in three sets (4-6, 6-4, 6-3), but Shelton has come on leaps and bounds since then, and is up to seven in the ATP rankings, while Fritz himself has risen to number four.

Fritz has been involved in three tiebreaks in Toronto, including three in one match against Jiri Lehecka (7-6, 6-7, 7-6), while Shelton has played three.

Half (two) of Shelton's four Canadian Open contests this year have gone over 24.5 total games, while it's landed once for Fritz, against Lehecka.

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